Posts tagged fantasy hockey

Second Half Gold

061013_josi

by Chris Nowinski
 
With the 2014 Winter Olympics break quickly approaching us, its time to take a close look at our hockey roster so we can make a run at the league title. Here are a list of the top 10 guys greatly unowned in ESPN leagues (99.9 %) or less that can help your squads down the stretch.

 

1. Roman Josi, Defense, Nashville Predators

Josi was 2nd round selection in the 2008 entry draft. He is a big defenseman who logs tons of minutes and is finally showing the offensive prowess he was projected to possess. In his last 10 games he has 9 points (3 goals, 6 assists) which is money for a defenseman. Doubters will look at his sub par plus/minus of -12 but he is a +9 in his last 6 contests. He also logs plenty of power play time with their offensive stud Shea Webber. The Predators are a team on the rise and so is Josi. Grab him before it’s too late.
 
2 & 3. Ondrei Palat/Tyler Johnson, Forwards, Tampa Bay Lightning

You have heard it here first. The Tampa Bay Lightning are going to the Eastern Conference Finals this year. They are getting the worlds best player back soon (Stamkos), they finally found a franchise goalie out of nowhere (Bishop), and Victor Hedman is finally realizing his potential when he was tabbed a future all-star defenseman. The Lightning are clicking on all cylinders right now. Now enter Ondrei Palat and Tyler Johnson. These 2 kids are currently playing with all-star Martin St Louis on the first line and have reaped benefits. Both young guns have 12 points in their last 13 games and we all know point per game players don’t grow on trees. Oh and by the way, Johnson just sniped a hat trick as we speak. It will be interesting to see how the lineup will shake up once Stamkos returns but the Lighting are a very good team and these 2 youngsters deserve a look.
 
4. Alexander Edler, Defenseman, Vancouver Canucks

Edler has been known all throughout his career for being a top 10 defensive playmaker in this league. injuries have plagued him this season and combined with the overall poor play of the Canucks you can understand why he’s just under 70% owned. But the dude has talent. The schedule for Vancouver also turns favorably for the franchise after the break. He also gets to play the man advantage with uber talents like the Sedin twins and Kesler and he gets plus ice time Sounds like a 2nd half match made in heaven. Grab him while you can.
 
5. Cody Hodgson, Forward, Buffalo Sabres

Hodgson is a talented center. The Buffalo Sabres are an organization in transition and Hodgson is one of their few bright spots. He piled up 34 points in 48 games last season and has 26 offensive tallies in 40 outings this season. He also benefits from playing on the sabres first line and power play with fellow sniper Matt Moulson so he gets above average ice time along with the scoring opportunities. A 0.25 power play points/games played ratio isn’t too shabby either.
 
6. Jacob Trouba, Defenseman, Winnipeg Jets

The man they call Troubaca, this 2012 9th pick overall selection has serious upside. He currently has 19 points in 35 games which puts him on pace to be a 40+ point defenseman which is fantasy gold. Another asset to his fantasy game is he isn’t a defensive liability which is evident of his +6 rating on the lowly Jets. Factor in he gets plenty of minutes and can chip in penalty minutes as well and whats not to like?
 
7. Valeri Nichushkin, Forward, Dallas Stars

A true darkhorse is every word, this kid is going to be a star. The question is how soon? As the 10th overall pick in last years draft, many people where tabbing Nichy as the most NHL ready prosect out there and he hasn’t dissapointed with 25 points in 48 games. He also sports a nice +13 rating. While those numbers don’t jump out at you, in fantasy it’s all about upside. He gets to play on the stars ultra talented top line with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin and as he adapts more to the game i expect good things from this kid in the 2nd half.
 

The Fantasy Hockey InjureCon: Week 5

Oh damn! He's back...the fantasy hockey purveyor of doom...the Injury Ninja!

Oh damn! He’s back…the fantasy hockey purveyor of doom…the Injury Ninja!

All in all, Week 5 is where we start to see some more injuries while some players get healthy. The comings and goings are destined to be an interesting ride for fantasy owners.

Please note that these are injuries that happened in Week 4. Any other injuries should be checked on TSN’s Injury Page. We do not count suspensions unless they are fantasy relevant players.

Fantasy Hockey Injury Update

ANAHEIM

Player Date Status Description
Jakob Silfverberg 2013-10-26 on injured reserve and is expected to miss 4-6 weeks broken right hand
Mathieu Perreault 2013-10-27 questionable for Sunday’s game against Columbus sprained left wrist
Dustin Penner 2013-10-27 questionable for Sunday’s game against Columbus mild concussion

BOSTON

Player Date Status Description
Loui Eriksson 2013-10-24 out indefinitely concussion

BUFFALO

Player Date Status Description
Mike Weber 2013-10-26 on injured reserve upper body

CALGARY

Player Date Status Description
Mark Giordano 2013-10-21 on injured reserve lower body
Lee Stempniak 2013-10-27 questionable for Wednesday’s game against Toronto lower body

CAROLINA

Player Date Status Description
Brett Bellemore 2013-10-25 on injured reserve lower-body
Cam Ward 2013-10-25 on injured reserve lower body
Patrick Dwyer 2013-10-26 questionable for Monday’s game against Pittsburgh upper body
Jeff Skinner 2013-10-26 questionable for Monday’s game against Pittsburgh upper body

CHICAGO

Player Date Status Description
Michael Kostka 2013-10-22 on injured reserve and will miss 4-6 weeks lower body
Michal Handzus 2013-10-27 expected to miss Monday’s game against Minnesota upper body

COLUMBUS

Player Date Status Description
Boone Jenner 2013-10-27 will miss Sunday’s game against Anaheim leg
Derek MacKenzie 2013-10-27 questionable for Sunday’s game against Anaheim lower body

EDMONTON

Player Date Status Description
Tyler Pitlick 2013-10-27 expected to miss Sunday’s game against Los Angeles sprained left knee

FLORIDA

Player Date Status Description
Tim Thomas 2013-10-23 on injured reserve lower body

MINNESOTA

Player Date Status Description
Jonas Brodin 2013-10-23 out indefinitely broken cheekbone
Josh Harding 2013-10-27 doubtful for Monday’s game against Chicago lower body

NASHVILLE

Player Date Status Description
Pekka Rinne 2013-10-23 will miss at least one month hip scope

NEW JERSEY

Player Date Status Description
Cory Schneider 2013-10-27 doubtful for Tuesday’s game against Tampa Bay lower body

NY ISLANDERS

Player Date Status Description
Lubomir Visnovsky 2013-10-21 on injured reserve concussion
Brian Strait 2013-10-27 questionable for Tuesday’s game against the NY Rangers upper body

NY RANGERS

Player Date Status Description
Henrik Lundqvist 2013-10-27 Will play Monday. undisclosed

PHOENIX

Player Date Status Description
Lauri Korpikoski 2013-10-23 on injured reserve upper body
Jeff Halpern 2013-10-27 questionable for Tuesday’s game against Los Angeles upper body
Rostislav Klesla 2013-10-27 questionable for Tuesday’s game against Los Angeles lower body

PITTSBURGH

Player Date Status Description
Rob Scuderi 2013-10-27 doubtful for Monday’s game against Carolina lower body

SAN JOSE

Player Date Status Description
Brent Burns 2013-10-27 will miss Sunday’s game against Ottawa upper body

ST. LOUIS

Player Date Status Description
Chris Stewart 2013-10-27 doubtful for Tuesday’s game against Winnipeg upper body
Magnus Paajarvi 2013-10-27 out indefinitely upper body

TORONTO

Player Date Status Description
Tyler Bozak 2013-10-27 on injured reserve lower body
Joffrey Lupul 2013-10-27 questionable for Tuesday’s game against Edmonton bruised foot

VANCOUVER

Player Date Status Description
Jannik Hansen 2013-10-23 on injured reserve upper body
David Booth 2013-10-26 questionable for Monday’s game against Washington undisclosed
Dale Weise 2013-10-26 questionable for Monday’s game against Washington leg

==========================================

All in all, there were 36 new injuries from Week 4. Let’s face facts. Injuries are getting to the point of critical mass. There is a little bit of good news for some but many others are going down. It is time to take a quick look.

Fantasy Hockey On The Mend

Henrik Lundqvist (G — NYR) – Hey, magically he is back tomorrow night for the Rangers home opener. Montreal will prove to be an interesting opponent as Lundqvist has had a bit of an adventure. No one thinks that GAA near 3.5 and sub .900 save percentage will continue. This might be a good time to try and buy low on the goaltender, even if he slumps a bit longer.

Fantasy Uh-Oh!

Cory Schneider (G — NJD) – You have to be a little concerned. Schneider has what is believed to be a groin injury. Technically it s a lower body issue and he will be held out Tuesday against Tampa Bay. After that, it is anyone’s guess but Schneider’s 2.14 GAA and .915 save percentage was pretty good. Martin Brodeur will run the show while Schneider is out. An IR trip is still possible although it is not likely.

InjureCon For The Road

Rick Dipietro — 10/10 (Charlotte Checkers)

Tobias Enstrom — 7.5/10 (Winnipeg)

Jarome Iginla — 5.5/10 (Boston)

Marc Staal — 5/10 (NY Rangers)

Niklas Backstrom — 5/10 (Minnesota)

===========================================

Good luck and as always follow me @ChrisWasselTHW and the @InjuryNinja for the latest hockey injuries.

 

2013-2014 NHL Fantasy Hockey Rankings

Do you believe this “youngster” now has two Cup titles? Believe it.

With only hours until the first puck drops on opening night of the 2013-2014 NHL season, I am proud to present my initial fantasy hockey rankings. This is the first season that our friends over at FantasyPros.com have hosted NHL rankings so please make sure to give these a read. Much like our fantasy baseball rankings, these fantasy hockey rankings will be updated weekly. The goal there will be to provide “rest of the season” rankings so that you can analyze trade offers and otherwise determine who to play on any given night (typically Thursdays, Fridays and the weekends) when you have an abundance of players available.
 
If you are ever curious as to how I go who to start on any given night, please reach out to me on Twitter @TheTonyM.  For now, enjoy and good luck this fantasy hockey season!
 


Fantasy Hockey Rankings powered by FantasyPros

 
A 24-year fantasy sports veteran and a California and New York licensed corporate attorney by day, I am the managing editor/senior writer/general counsel of FantasyTrade411.com. I am also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association and am also contributor to RotoGrinders.com, FantasyPros.com, TheFakeHockey.com and FantasyFeud.com. Please feel free to contact me at any time on twitter @TheTonyM with your fantasy sports questions. Be sure to listen to my podcast “Sports Counseling with the Doc and Slim” with my radio partner, Michael Clifford (aka @SlimCliffy) on the Fantasy Trade 411 Radio Network.

The FantasyTrade411 Fantasy Hockey Draft Guide

Screen Shot 2013-09-24 at 8.22.00 PM
The time has come!

 

A process that has been in the works since early July has finally come to fruition, and the FT411 Hockey Draft Guide is finished and ready for your perusal.

 

The process involved of getting this done has been lengthy at times. Something that is of this size requires hundreds of man-hours not only from myself, but from my editor Tony Mauriello and the owner of FT411, Nick Raducanu.

 

While we are charging a modest fee for this year’s guide (last year’s was available for free, but we did accept donations), it is certainly money well spent on your part if I do say so myself.

 

Included in this year’s Draft Guide:

  • Introduction To Fantasy Hockey – An explanation of different league set-ups, what statistics are commonly used, as well as a walk-through for first-time Commissioners to help set up their leagues.
  • My 10 Commandments For The 2013-2014 Season – General rules to follow for most of your leagues.
  • Draft Day Tips/Strategies – This overlaps with the Commandments a bit, but goes into a little more detail.
  • Auction Strategies – Values are not included, but strategies are.
  • Rookies/Sophomores To Watch For
  • Power Play Expectancy Rankings – A contribution from friend Neil Parker on quantifying expected power play points for/against.
  • Players Who Should Improve On A Down Year
  • Players Who Should Regress From A Career Year
  • Independent Defensive Position Hockey Leagues – A contribution from fellow FT411 writer Chris Wassel, who explains an interesting spin on normal fantasy hockey leagues.
  • Sleepers – These guys might return value from their draft day position, and vary from shallow leagues to the deepest of deep leagues.
  • Busts – Guys who will not return draft day value, again from varying depths of leagues.
  • Team-By-Team Previews – I take a look at all 30 NHL team’s 2013 season, look ahead to their 2013-2014 season, and go through who each team’s Fantasy MVP/Sleeper/Bust will (should/might) be.
  • Points-Only Rankings – This was by reader request. I have a list of my Top 200 points-only league players
  • Roto Rankings – I get more in-depth here than with my points-only rankings. I rank 350 players based on standard roto leagues (~200 forwards, 100 defensemen, 50 goalies).
  • Hockey Analytics – A lot of what I do is based off of statistics and analytics. The Draft Guide will contain about a 10,000 word treatise on what hockey analytics are and how they relate to fantasy hockey.

 

I will also be posting updates on FT411 for rankings movements with regards to suspensions, injuries, line combinations or any other reason right up until the day the season starts.

 

For those looking for Daily Fantasy Hockey tips, I omitted them from the Guide because I want to do something separate than lumping it in with a season-long guide. That will be on the website in the next couple of days.

 

So dive in and enjoy over 150 pages of fantasy hockey goodness. Draft season is here, and the fee we are asking is a small price to pay for year-long bragging rights (and maybe some cash) in your personal leagues. To get a copy of the guide in PDF and iBook format, just donate $4.99 through the PayPal button below and we’ll get a copy to your inbox immediately after! We’ll also be offering a season-long membership + draft guide package (that includes the draft guide, daily fantasy hockey lineups, and email access for answers longer than 140 characters) so if you’d like the season-long daily fantasy hockey membership AND the draft guide, enter in $9.99 below. If you’re only looking for the draft guide by itself, that’s still just $4.99.
 

 

Thanks everyone for your continued support, and let’s welcome back hockey!

 

*note: There was one reference in the analytics section to Tyler Seguin’s 2011-2012 PDO. That was in reference to an article written by Cam Charron for The Score

NHL Fantasy Hockey FanDuel Lineup for March 25, 2013

Hey, French-Canuck, just score for us. We’re depending on you!

Let’s continue rolling today. We squeaked by thanks to a brilliant shutout by Evgeni Nabokov and I cashed in the 50/50s and 3- and 5- player leagues that actually filled yesterday. Again, it was not pretty, but they count. This past weekend was some of the slowest for daily fantasy hockey, I am guessing, in large part, due to March Madness.
 
This lineup on FanDuel locks at 7:00pm East / 4:00pm West.
 
What is Daily Gaming?
 
In case you had not noticed, “daily gaming” has made giant strides in the fantasy sports world over the past two years. Daily games in fantasy hockey allow you the opportunity to pick a new team of your favorite players each night. Depending on the type of game you play, you could earn thousands of dollars in any given contest. The best part about this is that, in the majority of U.S. states, it is all legal so you do not have to go around talking about how you risked “jelly beans”.
 
Once you have registered for an account at FanDuel and have deposited $10 using PayPal (and I know that you have spent $10 on worse habits such as buying a case, yes, a case of Schlitz), all you need to do is choose a $1, $2 or $535 matchup in the draft lobby, pick your roster while staying under the $55,000 salary cap, and then sit back and enjoy watching your stats compile all night! I promise that it is a great and fun way to enjoy the NHL action on any given night and a simple way to win some quick cash if you know what you are doing (or if you follow my advice).
 
My 3/25/2013 NHL Lineup
 
Now that we have covered the basics, below is the lineup that I will use tonight in a $109 game and a handful of 50/50 games to ensure some payout, which has been my strategy over the past two and a half weeks. More often than not, I have finished inside the top 25 in these 50/50 games and while the payout is small, it somewhat hedges your cash in your head-to-head matchup if you happen to face a shark in any given day. Just to be clear, I play in 50 player 50/50 games as it is much easier, in my opinion, to finish in the top 25 than it is to finish in the top 50% of a smaller 50/50 game. That said, I do roll out the cash for the larger payout 50/50s if I feel great about my squad.
 
On with the lineup:
 
LW: Guillaume Latendresse ($5,800)
LW: Zach Parise ($7,000)
RW: Michael Frolik ($3,800)
RW: Pierre-Marc Bouchard ($4,800)
C: Jonathan Toews ($8,700)
C: Nazem Kadri ($7,500)
D: Duncan Keith ($5,400)
D: Jared Spurgeon ($4,300)
G: Corey Crawford ($7,600)
 
Salary remaining: $100.
 
As always, I anchored my team with the goalie that I think has the best chance to not only get the “W”, but is also likely to face a barrage of shots. The Devils have been firing the puck on net to the tune of well over 30 shots a game. That said, without Ilya Kovalchuk, while the SOGs may drop, the Senators have a better chance to win the game. At $7,100, I am thrilled to slot Ben Bishop in net, but I actually swapped him out for Corey Crawford at home against the Kings. I see the Senators continuing to roll at home and improve their 11-2-3 home record. At the -130 ML, 64% of the sharps like the Senators as well. Another team that has had success (other than the Blackhawks) is the Minnesota Wild. The Wild are road dogs, and are only 7-7-1 away from their home ice, but 67% of the sharps favor the Wild at +109. The makes sense as Minnesota has won 5 games in a row and 8 of their last 10. Three of the five wins during the streak were on the road against formidable teams in the Avalanche, Canucks and Red Wings.
 
As I set this lineup well before the games are played in any given night, please make sure you check my Twitter timeline close to the first puck drop to see if I have made any swaps. As always, the one item that I have not yet nailed down as of this posting is which netminder I want in my lineup.
 
Access to FanDuel
 
With our new partnership with FanDuel, you get to reap some of the rewards as a loyal reader of FantasyTrade411.com. If you click-through here and sign up for a new account with FanDuel, you will receive free money on your deposit when you put in the promo code “FT411″.  Thus, when you enter the promo code, you will receive an extra $5 for a $10 deposit; a $10 bonus for a $25 deposit; a $20 bonus for a $100 deposit; and a $30 bonus for a $200 deposit.
 
No matter how well you are doing in this shortened 2012-2013 fantasy hockey season thus far, it is never too late to head over to FanDuel, draft a new team for tonight’s NHL action and enjoy watching the games!
 
A 23-year fantasy sports veteran and a California and New York licensed corporate attorney by day, I am the managing editor/senior writer/general counsel of FantasyTrade411.com. I am also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please feel free to contact me at any time on twitter @TheTonyM with your fantasy sports questions. Be sure to listen to my podcast “Sports Counseling with the Doc and Slim” with my radio partner, Michael Clifford (aka @SlimCliffy) on the Fantasy Trade 411 Radio Network.

NHL Fantasy Hockey FanDuel Lineup for March 22, 2013

Kid is smiling because his Blue Jackets are playing great hockey.

Another short slate of NHL games is on the docket tonight, which means you really have to hit on not just who will score, which team will win, but you also have to focus on which players are likely to be on the ice for a goal for or a goal against. Remember, FanDuel penalizes you one point for each -1.
 
If you played the lineup I posted on Twitter last night, you should have cashed in any format. I won a handful of 3-person, 5-person and 10-person leagues, in addition to cashing in on all 50/50s I entered.
 
This lineup on FanDuel locks at 7:00pm East / 4:00pm West.
 
What is Daily Gaming?
 
In case you had not noticed, “daily gaming” has made giant strides in the fantasy sports world over the past two years. Daily games in fantasy hockey allow you the opportunity to pick a new team of your favorite players each night. Depending on the type of game you play, you could earn thousands of dollars in any given contest. The best part about this is that, in the majority of U.S. states, it is all legal so you do not have to go around talking about how you risked “jelly beans”.
 
Once you have registered for an account at FanDuel and have deposited $10 using PayPal (and I know that you have spent $10 on worse habits such as buying a case, yes, a case of Schlitz), all you need to do is choose a $1, $2 or $535 matchup in the draft lobby, pick your roster while staying under the $55,000 salary cap, and then sit back and enjoy watching your stats compile all night! I promise that it is a great and fun way to enjoy the NHL action on any given night and a simple way to win some quick cash if you know what you are doing (or if you follow my advice).
 
My 3/22/2013 NHL Lineup
 
Now that we have covered the basics, below is the lineup that I will use tonight in a $109 game and a handful of 50/50 games to ensure some payout, which has been my strategy over the past two and a half weeks. More often than not, I have finished inside the top 25 in these 50/50 games and while the payout is small, it somewhat hedges your cash in your head-to-head matchup if you happen to face a shark in any given day. Just to be clear, I play in 50 player 50/50 games as it is much easier, in my opinion, to finish in the top 25 than it is to finish in the top 50% of a smaller 50/50 game. That said, I do roll out the cash for the larger payout 50/50s if I feel great about my squad.
 
On with the lineup:
 
LW: Chris Kunitz ($8,800)
LW: Vinny Prospal ($5,800)
RW: Troy Brouwer ($5,100)
RW: Johan Franzen ($6,000)
C: Sidney Crosby ($9,900)
C: Peter Holland ($3,700)
D: Fedor Tyutin ($4,200)
D: Matt Niskanen ($4,100)
G: Tomas Vokoun ($7,400)
 
Salary remaining: $0.
 
In case you have not been paying attention, the Columbus Blue Jackets have been playing fantastic hockey and their defense is a main reason why they have had recent success (seven wins in last ten games with the three losses coming in either a shootout or OT). Not surprisingly, Sergei Bobrovsky is the highest priced goaltender on FanDuel tonight. I would love to play him, but if you have been following me, I like to skimp on my goalies and use the cash for my skaters.  The moneyline on the Columbus / Calgary game has the Blue Jackets at -138, but I believe the line moves, especially considering the heavy money from the sharps on the Blue Jackets at -138. Before the puck drops, I would not be surprised to see them favored at a -150 moneyline.
 
Another game the intrigues me is the Pittsburgh / New York Islander game. At -151 right now, the sharps are all over the game and I would absolutely hammer the over 5. The Penguins have taken 2 of 3 in the series this season, but put up 6 goals against the Isles on March 10. I see no let down in the Penguin first line (Kunitz-Crosby-Dupuis). I would have started Dupuis over Franzen, but you can only play four players from one team on FanDuel.
 
As I set this lineup well before the games are played in any given night, please make sure you check my Twitter timeline close to the first puck drop to see if I have made any swaps. As always, the one item that I have not yet nailed down as of this posting is which netminder I want in my lineup.
 
Access to FanDuel
 
With our new partnership with FanDuel, you get to reap some of the rewards as a loyal reader of FantasyTrade411.com. If you click-through here and sign up for a new account with FanDuel, you will receive free money on your deposit when you put in the promo code “FT411″.  Thus, when you enter the promo code, you will receive an extra $5 for a $10 deposit; a $10 bonus for a $25 deposit; a $20 bonus for a $100 deposit; and a $30 bonus for a $200 deposit.
 
No matter how well you are doing in this shortened 2012-2013 fantasy hockey season thus far, it is never too late to head over to FanDuel, draft a new team for tonight’s NHL action and enjoy watching the games!
 
A 23-year fantasy sports veteran and a California and New York licensed corporate attorney by day, I am the managing editor/senior writer/general counsel of FantasyTrade411.com. I am also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please feel free to contact me at any time on twitter @TheTonyM with your fantasy sports questions. Be sure to listen to my podcast “Sports Counseling with the Doc and Slim” with my radio partner, Michael Clifford (aka @SlimCliffy) on the Fantasy Trade 411 Radio Network.

NHL FanDuel Lineup for March 9, 2013 (LATE Lock)

My torrid point scoring pace is for you!

It was not a particular pretty night once again, but each of the lineups that I played last night finished in the money even if two of them tied with about 12 of you for both 23rd and 24th place. I will chalk that up as a win as we did earn a profit. In a few other upper-dollar 50/50s, I finished higher in the standings with a solid 32.4 FanDuel points anchored by a shutout by Viktor Fasth. The shutout put the lineup into the money. It is certainly better to be lucky than good. Today’s EARLY lock lineup is still playing so I will not know if we cashed until the last game finishes
 
If you have been following my lineups, we have now cashed in every lineup since last Friday for a total of ten total wins in a row, so I hope to keep it up. This lineup at FanDuel locks at 7pm East / 4pm West. It will only include the six later games.
 
What is Daily Gaming?
 
In case you had not noticed, “daily gaming” has made giant strides in the fantasy sports world over the past two years. Daily games in fantasy hockey allow you the opportunity to pick a new team of your favorite players each night. Depending on the type of game you play, you could earn thousands of dollars in any given contest. The best part about this is that, in the majority of U.S. states, it is all legal so you do not have to go around talking about how you risked “jelly beans”.
 
Once you have registered for an account at FanDuel and have deposited $10 using PayPal (and I know that you have spent $10 on worse habits such as buying a case, yes, a case of Schlitz), all you need to do is choose a $1, $2 or $535 matchup in the draft lobby, pick your roster while staying under the $55,000 salary cap, and then sit back and enjoy watching your stats compile all night! I promise that it is a great and fun way to enjoy the NHL action on any given night and a simple way to win some quick cash if you know what you are doing (or if you follow my advice).
 
My 3/9/2013 NHL Lineup (LATE Lock)
 
Now that we have covered the basics, below is the lineup that I will use tonight in a $109 game and a handful of 50/50 games to ensure some payout, which has been my strategy over the past two and a half weeks. More often than not, I have finished inside the top 25 in these 50/50 games and while the payout is small, it somewhat hedges your cash in your head-to-head matchup if you happen to face a shark in any given day. Just to be clear, I play in 50 player 50/50 games as it is much easier, in my opinion, to finish in the top 25 than it is to finish in the top 50% of a smaller 50/50 game. That said, I do roll out the cash for the larger payout 50/50s if I feel great about my squad.
 
On with the lineup:
 
LW: Max Pacioretty ($8,500)
LW: Colin Wilson ($4,700)
RW: Brendan Gallagher ($5,100)
RW: Pascal Dupuis ($5,800)
C: Steven Stamkos ($9,100)
C: Nazem Kadri ($6,600)
D: Roman Josi ($4,100)
D: Jacob Muzzin ($4,000)
G: Jon Quick ($7,100)
 
Salary remaining: $00.
 
I am setting this lineup fairly early in the day and as of this writing, Jon Quick has yet to be confirmed. The good thing is that I have an extra $400 to spare and if Quick isn’t confirmed prior to the lineup lock, I have room to make the swap. This evening, I swapped out Sidney Crosby for Steven Stamkos. Yes, the Lightning will get scored on, but I like Stamkos to do some scoring of his own. I also like Kadri and his third line to score, but not get scored on in the Penguins game. UPDATE: Made a LW adn D change.
 
As I set this lineup well before the games are played in any given night, please make sure you check my Twitter timeline close to the first puck drop to see if I have made any swaps. As always, the one item that I have not yet nailed down as of this posting is which netminder I want in my lineup.
 
Access to FanDuel
 
With our new partnership with FanDuel, you get to reap some of the rewards as a loyal reader of FantasyTrade411.com. If you click-through here and sign up for a new account with FanDuel, you will receive free money on your deposit when you put in the promo code “FT411″.  Thus, when you enter the promo code, you will receive an extra $5 for a $10 deposit; a $10 bonus for a $25 deposit; a $20 bonus for a $100 deposit; and a $30 bonus for a $200 deposit.
 
No matter how well you are doing in this shortened 2012-2013 fantasy hockey season thus far, it is never too late to head over to FanDuel, draft a new team for tonight’s NHL action and enjoy watching the games!
 
A 23-year fantasy sports veteran and a California and New York licensed corporate attorney by day, I am the managing editor/senior writer/general counsel of FantasyTrade411.com. I am also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please feel free to contact me at any time on twitter @TheTonyM with your fantasy sports questions. Be sure to listen to my podcast “Sports Counseling with the Doc and Slim” with my radio partner, Michael Clifford (aka @SlimCliffy) on the Fantasy Trade 411 Radio Network.

NHL FanDuel Lineup for March 9, 2013 (EARLY Lock)

I will carry your lineup tonight. Don’t worry about it.

It was not a particular pretty night once again, but each of the lineups that I played last night finished in the money even if two of them tied with about 12 of you for both 23rd and 24th place. I will chalk that up as a win as we did earn a profit. In a few other upper-dollar 50/50s, I finished higher in the standings with a solid 32.4 FanDuel points anchored by a shutout by Viktor Fasth. The shutout put the lineup into the money. It is certainly better to be lucky than good.
 
If you have been following my lineups, we have now cashed in every lineup since last Friday for a total of ten total wins in a row, so I hope to keep it up. This lineup at FanDuel locks at 12pm East / 9am West. This lineup is for all games today, but it just locks early.
 
What is Daily Gaming?
 
In case you had not noticed, “daily gaming” has made giant strides in the fantasy sports world over the past two years. Daily games in fantasy hockey allow you the opportunity to pick a new team of your favorite players each night. Depending on the type of game you play, you could earn thousands of dollars in any given contest. The best part about this is that, in the majority of U.S. states, it is all legal so you do not have to go around talking about how you risked “jelly beans”.
 
Once you have registered for an account at FanDuel and have deposited $10 using PayPal (and I know that you have spent $10 on worse habits such as buying a case, yes, a case of Schlitz), all you need to do is choose a $1, $2 or $535 matchup in the draft lobby, pick your roster while staying under the $55,000 salary cap, and then sit back and enjoy watching your stats compile all night! I promise that it is a great and fun way to enjoy the NHL action on any given night and a simple way to win some quick cash if you know what you are doing (or if you follow my advice).
 
My 3/9/2013 NHL Lineup (EARLY Lock)
 
Now that we have covered the basics, below is the lineup that I will use tonight in a $109 game and a handful of 50/50 games to ensure some payout, which has been my strategy over the past two and a half weeks. More often than not, I have finished inside the top 25 in these 50/50 games and while the payout is small, it somewhat hedges your cash in your head-to-head matchup if you happen to face a shark in any given day. Just to be clear, I play in 50 player 50/50 games as it is much easier, in my opinion, to finish in the top 25 than it is to finish in the top 50% of a smaller 50/50 game. That said, I do roll out the cash for the larger payout 50/50s if I feel great about my squad.
 
On with the lineup:
 
LW: Max Pacioretty ($8,500)
LW: Dustin Penner ($4,500)
RW: Brendan Gallagher ($5,100)
RW: James Neal ($8,500)
C: Sidney Crosby ($9,900)
C: Nicklas Backstrom ($6,500)
D: Dougie Hamilton ($4,500)
D: Roman Josi ($4,100)
G: Jake Allen ($3,300)
 
Salary remaining: $100.
 
Anchoring my lineup is the St. Louis Blues’ netminder. The Fredricton, New Brunswick native, who called up from AHL Peoria prior to the March 8 game against the Phoenix Coyotes. In winning the game to take his record to 4-1 on the season, Allen will start today’s game of the back-to-back weekend games for the Blues. At $3,300, I have plenty of extra cash to spend on my skaters. I’m going to continue to roll out two forwards on the Montreal first line as the Gallagher to Pacioretty combo has been deadly. Two nights ago I stated that I would continue to roll out Jakub Voracek until I thought that his price would exceed his value. I think that at $7,700 this morning agains the Bruins is too much. The Bruins do not give up many goals and I think their stout D shuts down the Flyers. I have studied the matchups for the better part of the evening and morning and I am having a tough time getting a read on who will win. I can tell you that I wanted to start Sid Crosby and James Neal against a pourous defense. UPDATE: I am actually going to hedge my bets with this early lineup and swap out Backstrom and Neal for Dupuis and Stamkos in another lineup. So, I’ll be playing two different early lineups. It’s your choice as to which one you roll. UPDATE.
 
As I set this lineup well before the games are played in any given night, please make sure you check my Twitter timeline close to the first puck drop to see if I have made any swaps. As always, the one item that I have not yet nailed down as of this posting is which netminder I want in my lineup.
 
Access to FanDuel
 
With our new partnership with FanDuel, you get to reap some of the rewards as a loyal reader of FantasyTrade411.com. If you click-through here and sign up for a new account with FanDuel, you will receive free money on your deposit when you put in the promo code “FT411″.  Thus, when you enter the promo code, you will receive an extra $5 for a $10 deposit; a $10 bonus for a $25 deposit; a $20 bonus for a $100 deposit; and a $30 bonus for a $200 deposit.
 
No matter how well you are doing in this shortened 2012-2013 fantasy hockey season thus far, it is never too late to head over to FanDuel, draft a new team for tonight’s NHL action and enjoy watching the games!
 
A 23-year fantasy sports veteran and a California and New York licensed corporate attorney by day, I am the managing editor/senior writer/general counsel of FantasyTrade411.com. I am also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please feel free to contact me at any time on twitter @TheTonyM with your fantasy sports questions. Be sure to listen to my podcast “Sports Counseling with the Doc and Slim” with my radio partner, Michael Clifford (aka @SlimCliffy) on the Fantasy Trade 411 Radio Network.

NHL Fanduel Lineup for January 28th

It seems like the wave of the future in all fantasy sports is daily gaming. Being able to set different lineups every day just gives a person that fleeting moment of glee we all get on our regular draft days. I say this moment is fleeting, because it’s usually not long until some of us are looking at our drafted teams and saying to ourselves “this team is awful”. Daily Gaming provides us the opportunity to rectify that drafting mistake the following day instead of the following year.

 

That being said, I never dipped my toes into the daily gaming waters until this year’s fantasy football season and this marks my first attempt at daily fantasy hockey.

 

Daily Fantasy and PDO

 

When thinking about what model I’m going to use to optimize my line-ups, I remembered a brief exchange I had on Twitter with advanced hockey stat-guru Cam Charron where I asked about a good sample size for PDO. For those unfamiliar with PDO, there is a brief explanation here. For those too lazy to click, it is the sum of the on-ice save percentage and on-ice shooting percentage of a team when a specific player is on the ice. For example, Tyler Ennis’ PDO so far this year is .912 (on-ice save%) + 0.0675% (on-ice shooting%) for a total of 974. The average is 1000. Anything above 1000 will regress down and anything below 1000 should move up.

 

My mistake was assuming that PDO held better over the long-run. Mr. Charron told me that the best use of PDO is in small sample sizes, around 5-6 games is best. This should give you an indicator of someone due for a hot streak (like Ennis) or someone due to cool down like Cory Conacher, sporting a 1119. (PDOs for all players can be found at behindthenet.ca). And that’s where the application for daily fantasy hockey comes in. Daily gaming is about catching those guys that are due to heat up at the right moment and combining them with players you think are consistent performers.

 

I’m going to test this theory for the first few weeks of the season to see how it pans out.

 

Tonight's Wild Card (Wilson, C/LW - NSH)

Tonight’s Wild Card (Wilson, C/LW – NSH)

 
My Line-up ($55 000 salary)

 

LW – Colin Wilson (NSH), $4700 (845 PDO); Milan Lucic (BOS), $6700 (1057 PDO)

RW – Jordan Eberle (EDM), $7300 (1060 PDO); Alex Semin (CAR), $5900 (1042 PDO)

C – Eric Staal (CAR), $8000 (1094 PDO); Mike Richards (LAK), $5300 (842 PDO)

D – Justin Schultz (EDM), $4700 (985 PDO); Oliver Ekman-Larsson (PXH), $4400 (966 PDO)

G – Kari Lehtonen (DAL), $7900

 

$100 Left Over
 

 

I really like Colin Wilson both in real hockey and fantasy hockey and think especially with Chad Johnson getting his first NHL start tonight, he’s a good play. The other guy I’m relying on is Mike Richards. He has an extremely low PDO and the Kings as a whole have been improving the last couple of games. It’s a back-to-back situation for Vancouver and three games in four nights. If Richards gets some chances, he should cash big today.

 

Don’t forget, you can sign-up for Fanduel here and will get bonus money deposited into your account if you deposit with the promo code “FT411″. You get free money and get to play fantasy sports every day. You’ve spent much worse on $10, I know I have already today.

 

That’s my line-up. Good luck with yours and as always you can reach me on Twitter @SlimCliffy for your fantasy hockey questions!

 

 

Fantasy Hockey: The Curious Case of Alex Ovechkin

DO THIS MORE. (Ovechkin, LW/RW-WSH)

DO THIS MORE. (Ovechkin, LW/RW-WSH)

 

It seems like for a few years now, people have been asking themselves “what’s wrong with Alex Ovechkin?”

 

This is a guy who scored 45+ goals for five straight seasons and 50+ goals in four of those five. He has now scored under 40 for two straight years and is goalless through the first three games of this season.

 

There have been numerous positions on this subject from everyone across the hockey spectrum. These posits range from teams have him “figured out” to the coaches aren’t “using him right” and so on and so on…

 

After looking into it a bit (this conversation came up on Twitter and curiosity finally got the best of me), there are two things I found can readily explain his “decline” over the last couple of years:

  1. He has to shoot the puck. He is not a passer, he was his most effective when he was scoring more goals than he was assisting on. I’ll demonstrate why this is the case
  2. His team has been drawing less penalties, taking him out of his bread-and-butter zone, the power-play.

 

I had long thought the relation between his shot and goal rates was fairly linear, and it is:

 

Shots

 

Goals

 

We see similar trends in many of the years, notably: 2005-2006, 2006-2007 and 2009-2010. The variance in the other years can be explained with his shooting percentage rates:

 

Shooting %
05/06 – 12.2
06/07 – 11.7
07/08 – 14.6
08/09 – 10.6
09/10 – 13.6
10/11 – 8.7
11/12 – 12.5

 

You see how a high shooting percentage like in ’07-’08 can greatly alter your final goal total (he had 65) and a low shooting percentage can decimate it; He had 33 less goals in ’10-’11 comapred to that ’07-’08 despite taking just 80 less shots.

 

So that is a nuts and bolts explanation of my first conclusion. When it comes down to it, Ovechkin just isn’t shooting enough. If Ovechkin were to shoot his career average (5.11 shots/game) and shoot at his career shooting percentage of 11.9%, he would score 29 goals this year or push for 50 goals in a normal season. That is the Ovechkin we have come to know. If he wants to mitigate at least some of the variance in his shooting percentage – and if he shot 5.11 shots/game last year he could have had 50 goals, instead of the 38 he ended up with – he needs to shoot a whole lot more than he is. As of right now, he’s averaging 3.67 shots/game in this shortened season, what would be a career-worst.

 

This brings me to conclusion number two: his team has not been drawing enough penalties.

 

Washington PP Opportunities League Average
2007-2008 346 351
2008-2009 337 341
2009-2010 313 304
2010-2011 263 291
2011-2012 245 271

Ovechkin’s power-play time has been consistently declining for 6 years now (I’ll concede it’s still too early to really reach any conclusion about this year). This is directly a result of his team not drawing as many penalties. The league average for power-play opportunities declined four straight years from 2007-2011, so that is a part of it.

 

However, in any season from 2007-2010, the Capitals never drew any less than 5 total penalties less than the league average. In 2010-2011? They drew 28 less penalties than the league average. For a player that has over 100 power-play goals since the 2004-2005 lockout, that was a death-knell. It shouldn’t be any surprise then that Ovechkin scored a career-worst seven PP goals in 2010-2011 after scoring no less than 13 in any season previous to that and getting over 20 PP goals twice. Also, it should be noted, Ovechkin had his worst power-play shooting percentage of the last three years that season as well.

 

How did they do last year? They were fourth-worst in drawing penalties. If Ovechkin hadn’t shot his 12.6% on power-plays like he did last year (and he shot more often), he likely wouldn’t have cracked the double-digit goal mark on the power-play.

 

Time On Ice/Game Power-Play Time On Ice/Game
2007-2008 23:06 5:20
2008-2009 23:00 5:06
2009-2010 21:48 4:45
2010-2011 21:22 4:08
2011-2012 19:48 3:30
2012-2013 23:20 3:29

 

Obviously, this is a bit more nuanced than straight-forward shooting and drawing penalties. The game has changed over the last six or seven years to a more East-West game (cross-crease passes and passes through lanes) and a premium has been placed on shot-blocking.

 

But, like I showed, he needs to shoot more and his team needs to draw more penalties. He has gone from averaging over 6.5 shots/game in 2008-2009 to less than 3.75 shots/game now. Also, his team can’t go from drawing 3% more penalties than the league average as they did 2009-2010, to drawing 10% less penalties than the league average last year. It will spell disaster for a player who was once the most electrifying hockey player on the planet.

 

*all numbers courtesy of www.hockey-reference.com and www.behindthenet.ca