FantasyTrade411

Is Brook Lopez doing a Mark Madsen dance?

Editors Note: A HUGE congratulations to Kyle for being nominated for the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Newcomer of the Year Award!

Welcome to another edition of the Soppe Stock Report!

by Kyle Soppe

Buy – Players who have been good and will continue to be good. Feel free to pay face value in a trade.
 
Brook Lopez: The Nets big man is finally fully healthy and is reminding his fantasy owners of why they drafted him as a starting center. Since he returned from a sprained right foot on December 12^th, Lopez is averaging 25.5 points per game in which he played at least 25 minutes and the Nets won. That may seem like an odd split stat to look at, but take a peek at their upcoming schedule. Through the end of February, a conservative projection would be a 16-8 record, and with only four back-to-backs, Lopez figures to be heavily involved (averaging 28.8 minutes after not playing the night before). Deron Williams and Joe Johnson are not just healthy but playing at a very high level, stretching defenses and leaving Lopez single covered around the basket. The physical presence of Reggie Evans should add to Lopez’s rebounding upside, as the opponent’s best rebounder isn’t likely to be matched up with him. Lopez will offer strong percentages, top 10 block totals, and as many points as any center eligible player in all of fantasy.

DeMarcus Cousins: If your fantasy league is one that measures likability or deducts points for bone headedness, ignore this column. Assuming you play in a more standard format, take a chance on the erratic Kings big man. He is the unquestioned top option in Sacramento which means plenty of shot attempts (at least 17 in four of his last five games), but I’m buying into Cousins for his ability to contribute in not so standard big man categories. He is shooting a career best from the free throw line (77.8%) and is averaging nearly 4.5 assists since Christmas. His 1.4 steals per game tie him for third among all centers, giving him value across the board. The risk to rostering/acquiring “The Human Headache” is outweighed by the potential reward in my opinion, as Cousins could finish inside the top 40 overall players in most formats.

Hold – Players who should maintain their current value. “Role players” in the fantasy community.
 
Andrei Kirilenko:  The Timberwolves simply can’t catch a break when it comes to injuries, but that doesn’t mean that there isn’t fantasy value to be had in Minnesota. With Kevin Love sidelined for the next 8-10 weeks there is no reason to expect a dip in Kirilenko’s 35+ minutes per game, and with Ricky Rubio expected back in the near future, his productivity should at least remain constant. His 52.1% shooting from the field is a career best while his rebounds, minutes, steals, and points are all his best marks since his 2005 breakout campaign. Alexey Shved and Rubio make everyone around them better and with Nikola Pekovic patrolling the paint, AK47 is allowed to roam free and make plays (much like 2005). He is a player that will not hurt you anywhere (his only negative impact according to ESPN’s Player Rater is 3PM and that is of minimal impact: -0.09) and with his teammates health issues, look for Kirilenko’s role to grow as the season progresses.

George Hill: In his first year of being cemented into the starting lineup, Hill has been able to maintain his efficient style of play. He is seeing an average of 9.4 more minutes than last season and his scoring (14.7ppg) has responded nicely. His assist numbers have increased as a result of the growth of Paul George while his prowess on the glass ranks among the league leaders at his position. There are a lot of aspects of his game to like and there is room for improvement. Hill’s field goal percentage and three point percentage are his lowest since his rookie season in San Antonio, and if he can cure those ails, he very well could find himself among the 15 most valuable point guards in fantasy basketball.

Sell – Players destined to lose value as the season progresses. Look to move them before the decline kicks in.
 
Jason Kidd: You’ll have a hard time finding a bigger JKidd fan than yours truly, but he won’t be on a single one of my fantasy teams moving forward. New York’s players are going to say all of the right things, but a healthy Amar’e Stoudemire will change how this offense operates. The ball won’t move as freely in transition or the half court, something that will directly impact both Kidd’s assist potential and his open looks from downtown. It is hard to imagine Kidd gaining any fantasy value as the season progress (don’t forget that he is 39 years old), meaning that his stock has peaked already. Build up his elite steals and his best FG% this millennium, while leaving out his downward trending assist totals projected downward moving 3PM, and shop him sooner rather than later.

Kyle recently graduated college, with his final credits coming via a fantasy writing internship. Name the place and the time and Kyle is ready to discuss/debate the day’s top fantasy issues. He’s always got updated rankings in his pocket, and is more than willing to offer his insight on any issues you may come across in your quest for a fantasy football crown.
 
Kyle uses cold hard statistics to back his arguments, and combines humor with numbers when the opportunity presents itself. Kyle is pursuing a potential career in the field of fantasy sports (MLB, NBA, and NFL) as this is his true passion. Follow and tweet Kyle @unSOPable23 for the latest and greatest fantasy information or email him mailto: KylePickinSplinters@rochester.rr.com if you’d like an opinion longer than 140 characters.
 
 

Are you buying or selling on Serge Iblocka?

Welcome to another edition of the Soppe Stock Report!
 
by Kyle Soppe
 
Buy – Players who have been good and will continue to be good. Feel free to pay face value in a trade.
 
Jarrett Jack: He is playing well now, but his fantasy owner may be looking to “sell high” on the reserve guard. Take advantage. Sure, he hasn’t started a game this season, and that might not change, but his 27.3 minutes per game are more than enough to stabilize his solid fantasy numbers. He plays in an up-tempo Golden State offense which makes me believe in his 5+ assists per game. Fantasy owners can also live with his 12 points per game due to his strong percentages which includes a career high FG% (49.2%). He is accumulating solid stats with a healthy Steph Curry, showing that Mark Jackson is confident in Jack’s ability. Odds are that Curry will miss time at some point, and that would open the door for Jack to increase his numbers. In the worst case, Jack’s role remains the same, and he follows his career progression which includes an increase in percentages, assists, and points after the all star break. His game isn’t as flashy as that of other elite reserves (see Crawford, Jamal), but his fantasy production is already similar and you could argue that it has more upside moving forward.
 
Serge Ibaka: We all know that he blocks shots at an incredible rate which single handedly gives him plenty of fantasy value. But don’t fall into the trap of thinking that that is all he is capable of. The 6’10” power forward has extended his range and while that hasn’t resulted in many three pointers, it makes him more of a threat on the offensive end. It has allowed him to averaged 3.2 more shots per game this season than at any other point in his career and not only maintain but improve his shooting percentage. Ibaka’s percentages are elite for any big man, let alone one who is a near lock to lead the league in blocked shots every single season. He should benefit from playing alongside three great scorers, as defenses can only take away so many options. The additional scoring (a 43.4% increase from his highest scoring season) makes him my second ranked PF, behind only LeBron James, for the rest of the 2012-2013 season.
 
Hold – Players who should maintain their current value. “Role players” in the fantasy community.
 
Tyson Chandler: The Knicks center is not going to make highlight reels and doesn’t star in any commercials, but that doesn’t mean he can make up for a lot of flaws in your fantasy roster. Have a guard loaded team that racks up assists and points? Add Chandler and his 10 rebounds per night. Have a team stacked with swingmen and bigs who dominate the counting statistics but lack solid percentages? Add Chandler and his 69% shooting from the field and 70% from the line. His unique skill set allows you to gain a fantasy edge as it allows you to roster specialists in other categories. He averages nearly a block, a steal, and an assist every night, allowing him to hold his own against other starting big men. His scoring is nothing to sneeze at (12.6 ppg) and has been on the rise since his time in Charlotte four seasons ago. He does not get the name recognition of a top 50 player, but he slides safely in that range every season, and if his scoring continues to spike, he could find himself inside the top 25 by season’s end.
 
Danny Green/Matt Barnes: Only three players ranked in ESPN’s top 50 have less of a negative impact (sum of the negative values from their Player Rater) than this surprisingly versatile duo, and my guess is that you’ve heard of those players: Kevin Durant, James Harden, and Carmelo Anthony. For clarity, I am NOT saying that Green and Barnes are in that class, but the fact that these players (ranked 80^th and 56^th respectively) aren’t going to hurt you in any categories makes them worth a roster spot. The future could be even brighter than the present for these two as they both play for aging teams who will likely look to rest their top players as the season winds down. Again, these are not necessarily players to build a team around, but don’t be surprised if the champion in your league has at least one of them when all is said and done.
 
Sell – Players destined to lose value as the season progresses. Look to move them before the decline kicks in.
 
Kobe Bryant: Given his level of production early this season, I don’t blame you for questioning the inclusion of the future hall of famer in this section. But dig a little deeper into his numbers and you’ll understand my train of thought. The point production is still there, but the first sign of Father Time fighting back may have already begun. Through 12 December games 26% of Bryant’s field goal attempts have come from three point land. That is a 23.5% increase from his career three point distribution, indicating that Bryant could be slowly changing his game from an aggressive player off of the dribble to a spot up shooter with Steve Nash creating the open looks. This transition and change in style of play is likely to be a slow one, but considering that Bryant has shot under 35% in 12 of the last 15 seasons from distance (33.8% career), it is reason for concern. His 34 year old legs are undergoing a lot of stress (averaging more minutes this season than in each of the prior four seasons) and when you combine that with the fact that he has seen a dip in his career scoring totals every month from January forward, Bryant could be on his way out of the top 10 sooner rather than later.

Kyle recently graduated college, with his final credits coming via a fantasy writing internship. Name the place and the time and Kyle is ready to discuss/debate the day’s top fantasy issues. He’s always got updated rankings in his pocket, and is more than willing to offer his insight on any issues you may come across in your quest for a fantasy football crown.
 

Kyle uses cold hard statistics to back his arguments, and combines humor with numbers when the opportunity presents itself. Kyle is pursuing a potential career in the field of fantasy sports (MLB, NBA, and NFL) as this is his true passion. Follow and tweet Kyle @unSOPable23 for the latest and greatest fantasy information or email him mailto: KylePickinSplinters@rochester.rr.com if you’d like an opinion longer than 140 characters.