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The Day I Worked From Home (via BroJackson.com)

As most of you know, I’m a proud, native Bostonian. Knowing that about me, my buddy FantasyDouche put me in touch with the guys at BroJackson.com in regards to writing a first-hand account of what happened.

 

I know this is a fantasy sports website, but there are things that transcend sports and I felt like this was something I needed to do (and it wound up being a very cathartic way of processing what happened to my beloved city). While no one is sure of the identities of the sick bastards who did this, I am certain of two things: 1. our once fun-loving Marathon Monday will never be the same, and 2. our once fun-loving Marathon Monday will always be the same. While the innocence of the day may be slightly changed forever, we are a proud (and stubborn) city and I am 110% sure that we won’t let a few psychos change who we are and the way we live. After all, we did blindly support the Red Sox for 86 years during their championship drought.

 

I’ve included an excerpt of my piece  below, but you can visit BroJackson.com if you’d like to read the full version of The Day I Worked From Home. I won’t claim to have a sweeping, Earth-shattering thesis for you, but I hope you find it a valuable read.
 
“Here I am at the end of the night and this isn’t nearly as easy to write as I had originally thought. I have so many emotions that I want to get out, but I’m not really sure where to start and I’m not even sure I have any sort of overarching thesis statement. I’m sad, I’m mad, I’m thankful, and I’m not really sure how to bundle all that up into anything coherent or new. What I do know, is that there are three people who were tragically killed today and another 150 or so who were injured in a cowardly act that makes absolutely no sense–and I hope you’ll bear with me while I try to put pen to paper.
 
For the uninitiated, Marathon Monday (also the Patriots Day state holiday up here in Massachusetts) is one of the most fun days of the year on Boston’s calendar. For a state that didn’t allow beer to be sold on Sundays until like four years ago, Marathon Monday has always been a way to let our Puritan hair down and break the Blue Laws for a bit. Thousands of suburbanites drive into the city to line the marathon route and cheer the runners or go to the 11 a.m. Sox game while the future brilliant minds of America inhabiting the fine academic institutions of the city prepare Jell-O shots and practice their keg stands up and down the apartment buildings that line Comm Ave and Beacon Street.”

 

If you’d like to read the full version of this story, you can do so here.
 

NFBC Roster

NFBCRoster

NFBC Rounds 16-30

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NFBC Rounds 1-15

NFBC

Fantasy Basketball: The Risky Business of Owning Tim Duncan

"What?! You fantasy basketball idiots are thinking about trading me??"

“What?! You fantasy basketball idiots are thinking about trading me??”

by David Brady

 

It was All-Snooze break in Fantasy Basketball last weekend, which means it was time for us to watch crazy good athletes put all their crazy good tricks on display with nothing really important on the line – except who does the most awesome crazy good stuff. And we did it without worrying about box scores!

 
Personally, one of my favourite parts of All-Star weekend (and any game really) is watching the players’ reactions. I love the guy who jumps up and holds back the bench when someone throws down a ridiculous dunk. And while we’re talking benches, there should be an All-Star spot for this guy to lead all celebrations.

 
So, after you’ve reconnected with your partner for Valentines, danced like Robert Sacre (you’re already doing it aren’t you), started reading your copy of the FT411 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, and enjoyed All-Star weekend, it’s time to get back into the rest of the fantasy basketball season. Everyone’s telling you to take stock of your team and make some moves. I’m telling you it’s time to take some risks.

 
Let’s talk risks. I don’t mean ignoring your wife on Valentines because it’s a stupid commercialized hallmark holiday. I don’t mean putting your iPhone in your mouth with the light on so you can see where you’re peeing in the middle of the night in an attempt to not turn the bathroom light on & wake up the same wife you’re ignoring on Valentines. Those things aren’t risks; they’re just plain stupid.

 
The risk I’m talking about relates to Timmy Duncan.

 
Sell Sell Sell – he’s a dinosaur, he’ll get DNP-OLD’s, he’ll get less minutes, you can’t trust him or Pop vs. Hold – his production is too good, he’s still a top level asset when on the court and I think he’ll play a decent amount of minutes.
 
For my (weak) argument, I am going to assume that his current 29.77 min production will have proportional equivalents in 28, 27 etc, and he maintains his current %’s. I’m going to assume he sits out one game in each of the five back to backs the Spurs have left. I’m also going to assume he misses a couple of extra games along the way with minor injuries. All up, I’m guessing he plays about 21 of the remaining 28 Spurs regular season games. That will give him 65 games for the season (2nd lowest in his career excluding last year’s shortened season).

 

Here’s a little something I threw together to play with and see if he’s worth the risk or whether he should be shipped off.

 
So, plug and play with whatever number of games & number of minutes you think Duncan might get. For replacement player purposes I’ve thrown in Spencer Hawes’ numbers just as an example. He is currently ranked 136 in Yahoo & owned in 56% of leagues. You’ve probably got someone better as a back up (I’m rocking Tristan Thompson so I’m pretty happy with that).

 
Personally, I think I’m going to gamble on Duncan playing 21 games and around 27 minutes. Based on this I’ve still got him projected at just above 15/8 with 2 AST and 2 BLKs (plus his percentages). I’ll still take that 21 times. It’s the blocks & the potential of even more.

 
At the same time though, if you have doubts about those games or minutes or just generally think my formulae & assumptions suck (but feel someone in your league could be shown the value of that potential production to their team), then TD still has really good trade value to the right owner.

 
I know I haven’t given you the answer, but I don’t have it either. I’m rolling with him for now, taking the risk & hoping he doesn’t get hurt. The other thing that is in my mind is the fact that he played one game before the All-Star break. It makes me think he’s OK. I mean seriously, why would you risk him for one game before the break if he’s not up to it?
I hope you enjoyed the All-Star Break and I hope you treated your wife to something nice on Valentine’s. And remember: When in doubt, dance like Sacre.

 

Written by Mr. David Brady. David has been a long-time FantasyTrade411 follower/reader and is a “Joe” participant in our FantasyTrade411 Pros vs. Joes Fantasy Basketball league. David hails all the way from Down Under (that’s Australia for all of you who failed Geography class), but I’ve yet to confirm if he is a big Luc Longley fan or if he enjoys vegemite sandwiches.

 

Fantasy Baseball: Putting the F-U in Kung Fu Panda

Kung Fu Panda probably won't look so thankful if he ever reads this article

Kung Fu Panda probably won’t look so thankful if he ever reads this article

by Kyle Soppe

 

The last MLB game you watched ended with Pablo Sandoval rocking a “World Series Champions” T-shirt and grasping the MVP trophy. Remember that? Odds are that you do, but fail to remember the subpar regular season the Kung Fu Panda had. In your fantasy baseball league, remind me again, did you get credit for a single one of his six postseason homers? How about his 1.098 OPS, did that give you an edge?
 
Postseason success isn’t always a bad thing in fantasy sports, but it does have a way of sticking in your head longer than it should. Come back to this article when it is time for Fantasy Football, as we will be having the same discussion about Joe Flacco:  great nickname, historical postseason run, and a mediocre fantasy contributor. In addition to the inflated value Sandoval has gained in your subconscious, there are a few tangible reasons to avoid the pudgy third basemen.
 
He came into training camp this season at a robust 262 pounds, 16 over his playing weight from last season. I don’t doubt that this man has a higher playing weight than most human beings, but when you consider that the Hamwi formula (a widely trusted “healthy weight” calculator) states that 262 pounds is a healthy weight for a 7’4” male with an active lifestyle, you have to question the 5’11” Sandoval’s ability to produce at a high level at his current weight. The Giants aren’t happy with the added weight while Sandoval doesn’t see a problem with it: “I feel in shape. Who cares what other people say”. Even if you don’t buy the weight as a problem, the fact that he and management are on opposite sides of the fence very well could become an issue should he struggle out of the gate.
 
Pablo Sandoval the baseball player has played in just 225 regular season games over the last two seasons, making it hard to count on him for a full slate of games in any given year. Not including his rookie season, Sandoval has averaged 490 at bats per season, so I’ll use that benchmark to provide projections for the Giants man at the hot corner. Based on his career marks, a 490 at bat season would include 18.3 home runs, 71.6 RBI, 63.6 runs scored, and a .299 batting average. Those aren’t bad numbers, but are they really what you want out of your starting third basemen? Those numbers are nearly identical to the 2012 version of Miguel Montaro , a fringe top 10 catcher. Those 18 home runs would have been tied for the 17th best total among third basemen last season, 72 RBI would have ranked 15th, and 64 runs would tied him for 19th. Where is the upside for Sandoval? He bats in front of Buster Posey, which is nice, but with career journeymen Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro batting ahead of him, he doesn’t figure to get much help. He lacks consistent plate discipline from year to year (his batting average has moved at least 32 points in each of his last four seasons), a problem in an offense that can’t rely on the long ball. AT&T Park in San Francisco was the second hardest place (according to Park Factor) to score runs and doesn’t give up cheap home runs. The division isn’t going to do Sandoval any favors either, as the Dodgers might have the best starting pitching duo in the majors and the Diamondbacks have nice pitching depth.
 
When all is said and done this season, Sandoval’s name is likely to be of more value than his on the field production. He is currently being touted as a top 85 overall player (and top 10 third basemen) by both Yahoo (65th overall and ninth at his position) and ESPN (81st  and 10th). When you take into account upside Sandoval is a tough sell as a top 100 player, and with a variety of promising youngsters at third base this season, Sandoval’s days as a fantasy starter may be limited.
 
Kyle recently graduated college, with his final credits coming via a fantasy writing internship. Name the place and the time and Kyle is ready to discuss/debate the day’s top fantasy issues. He’s always got updated rankings in his pocket, and is more than willing to offer his insight on any issues you may come across in your quest for a fantasy football crown.
 
Kyle uses cold hard statistics to back his arguments, and combines humor with numbers when the opportunity presents itself. Kyle is pursuing a potential career in the field of fantasy sports (MLB, NBA, and NFL) as this is his true passion. Follow and tweet Kyle @unSOPable23 for the latest and greatest fantasy information or email him mailto: KylePickinSplinters@rochester.rr.com if you’d like an opinion longer than 140 characters.
 

NHL FanDuel Lineup for February 16, 2013 (LATE)

I expect big things from JVR tonight against the decimated Senators.

With a nice slate of games on the NHL docket today, I had no difficulties filling out a roster over at FanDuel. In reviewing the matchups, we should have some great hockey viewing on TV (or at the rink) all day. I am setting this lineup mid-afternoon on Saturday for those of you that missed my early game lineup.
 
What is Daily Gaming? 
 
No matter your situation, and in case you had not noticed, “daily gaming” has made giant strides in the fantasy sports world over the past two years. Daily games in fantasy hockey allow you the opportunity to pick a new team of your favorite players each night. Depending on the type of game you play, you could earn thousands of dollars in any given contest. The best part about this is that, in the majority of U.S. states, it is all legal so you do not have to go around talking about how you risked those confection, Valentine’s hearts.
 
Once you have registered for an account at FanDuel and have deposited $10 using PayPal (and I know that you have spent $10 on worse habits such as buying vegetables or those “green drinks”), all you need to do is choose a $2 or $5 matchup in the draft lobby, pick your roster while staying under the $55,000 salary cap, and then sit back and enjoy watching your stats compile all night! I promise…it is a great and fun way to enjoy the NHL action on any given night and a simple way to win some quick cash if you know what you are doing (or if you follow my advice).
 
My 2/16/2013 NHL Lineup (LATE)
 
Now that we have covered the basics, below is the lineup that I will use tonight in a $25 game and a few 50/50 games to ensure some payout, which has been my strategy over the past week. I haven’t finished outside the top 25 yet in these 50/50 games and while the payout is small, it somewhat hedges your cash in your head-to-head matchup if you happen to face a shark in any given night.
 
LW: Matt Moulson ($6,200)
LW: James Van Riemsdyk ($6,200)
RW: David Clarkson ($6,600)
RW: Ilya Kovalchuk ($6,800)
C: Patrick Elias ($5,700)
C: John Tavares ($7,500)
D: Oliver Ekman-Larsson ($4,500)
D: Sheldon Souray ($5,500)
G: Viktor Fasth ($5,800)
 
Salary remaining: $200.
 
As you can tell, I’m taking a big risk and semi-stacking the New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders and Anaheim Ducks. Viktor Fasth, once again, looked solid in net last night against the Detroit Red Wings in Detroit giving up 2 goals with a .929 save percentage. Fasth, at the especially still low price of $5,800, next to Jake Allen, is the best bargain on Fan Duel.
 
Access to FanDuel
 
With our new partnership with FanDuel, you get to reap some of the rewards as a loyal reader of FantasyTrade411.com. If you click-through here and sign up for a new account with FanDuel, you will receive free money on your deposit when you put in the promo code “FT411″.  Thus, when you enter the promo code, you will receive an extra $5 for a $10 deposit; a $10 bonus for a $25 deposit; a $20 bonus for a $100 deposit; and a $30 bonus for a $200 deposit.
 
No matter how well you are doing in this shortened 2012-2013 fantasy hockey season thus far, it is never too late to head over to FanDuel, draft a new team for tonight’s NHL action and enjoy watching the games!
 
A 23-year fantasy sports veteran and a California and New York licensed corporate attorney by day, I am the managing editor/senior writer/general counsel of FantasyTrade411.com. I am also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please feel free to contact me at any time on twitter @TheTonyM with your fantasy sports questions. Be sure to listen to my podcast “Sports Counseling with the Doc and Slim” with my radio partner, Michael Clifford (aka @SlimCliffy) on the Fantasy Trade 411 Radio Network.

 

2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide Download

Cover (1)Thanks for your interest in the draft guide!

 

All you need to do now is click the TinyPass link below and enter your payment information. You’ll then be pushed behind the paywall where you can click the link provided to download the PDF of the Draft Guide using your credit card or PayPal ($9.99).

Fantasy Trade 411 – NASCAR Burn Out Competition

I’m a degenerate fantasy NASCAR burn out.  If it involves wheels and fantasy points – I’ll pretty much join your league. Over the years I’ve collected a few league championships and ton of useless NASCAR memorabilia like this…

 

Kyle Petty

So now I’m offering you the chance to win your very own piece of NASCAR history!

 

All you have to do is accumulate more total points than Trader X in ESPN Stock Car Challenge.

 

What’s up for grabs?

 

In honor of his final season with Richard Childress Racing, you can win this 2007 Press Pass Eclipse Certified Race-Used Tire Card.

Check it out!

 

Kevin Harvick Burn Out

“If you ain’t first, you’re last” – Ricky Bobby

 
The challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to earn more fantasy points over the course of the 36 race Sprint Cup Season than my buddy Trader X.
 
He’s no NASCAR fan, so putting him a lap down should be easy – especially if you develop a long-term investment strategy that reduces risk and uncertainty.

 

Now all you have to do is sign up for ESPN Stock Car Challenge and join the Fantasy Trade 411 – NASCAR Burn Out Competition.  The owner with the most points at the end of season wins the Harvick card and a ton of bragging rights!

 

The Password is: FT411Cup

 

If you need any advice for beating Trader X (or if there is anything I can do to help you win your fantasy NASCAR league) check out my Top 25 Fantasy Drivers for 2013 and feel free to send your questions to me on Twitter or Google+.

 

Best of luck in this year!

 

For more advice on the game’s “floating” salary cap system, please check out NASCAR-nomics: A Long-term Investment Strategy for ESPN Stock Car Challenge.

 

About the Author: Travis is a problem solver.  He’s also a writer, poker player, and mechanical engineering graduate from the University of Miami.  Whether he’s sharing his salary cap sports strategies or discussing the mental aspects of fantasy sports, he always takes an analytical approach that helps fantasy owners think more logically. If you have any questions, please feel free to hit him up on Twitter @GoProFS24.
 

Tips For First-Time Fantasy Hockey Commissioners

This year more than ever it seems people are giving their first go-round to fantasy hockey. I’ll attribute this to a couple things. Firstly, the prevalence of fantasy sports is growing at an exceptional rate overall, so people branching out shouldn’t surprise many. Secondly, the timing of the end of the NHL lockout put it after the end of the regular season in the NFL (and the end of many fantasy seasons) and a bit earlier than most people prepare for their fantasy baseball seasons. It’s a perfect storm for people to take on fantasy hockey for the first time.

 

Be flexible with your leagues. No one wants to be this guy. (Commissioner Gary Bettman)

Be flexible with your leagues. No one wants to be this guy. (Commissioner Gary Bettman)

 

Along with people trying their hand at FH for the first time, it’s the first time for many commissioners. I have had questions from a couple people now with regards on how they should set up their leagues. How you want to set up your leagues depends on a few things that I touched on in my guide (Real-time stats like hits and block, points-only leagues, rotisserie or head-to-head). I will discuss these issues in three parts:

 

  1. Format – Rotisserie or Head-to-Head?
  2. Category Inclusion – Which stats should you use in your leagues?
  3. Roster Sizes – How many teams are there and how many players should be on the roster?

 

I’ll go through these one by one.

 

Format

 

I’ve never liked head-to-head in any sport. An entire season of research and line-up tinkering can be undone with one bad week that you have no control over. For this reason, I recommend rotisserie leagues. But if you really want to put yourself up against your league-mates, then that is completely up to you. If you go the head-to-head route, a few things to keep in mind:

 

  • Make sure there’s a minimum number of goalie starts for a week. I would recommend absolutely no less than three (assuming two goalies start). This is to avoid someone starting one goalie, getting a shutout, then not starting anyone the rest of the week to ensure they win at least two of the categories (goals against and save percentage).
  • I would cap roster moves at a fair number, say 20-25 maximum. This is to avoid people streaming players and goalies to max our their stats as best they can. The winner should be the person who drafted the best team, not the person who can click their mouse the most.
  • Have a low percentage of teams make playoffs. I would say roughly one-third of the league size (4 in 10 or 12 teamers, 6 in 14 or 16 teamers with first-round byes for top finishers). This ensures that even if someone loses in the first round, it’s not a complete fluke. If you want to include more teams in playoffs for the purpose of “keeping people interested” I can understand that too.

 

Although I’m not a fan of H2H leagues, I would instill these rules as a guideline. Talk with your league-mates about anything else you might want to include.

 

For rotisserie formats, here’s a couple things you might want to consider:

 

  • Make sure your games limit for each position is set at 48. It wasn’t until a few days ago that Yahoo! made the adjustment for the lockout shortened season and it reduced the maximum number of games from over 100.
  • The 48-game limit should be for all positions. This includes goalies. I know they won’t start all 48, but that’s where back-ups and waiver wire plays a role. It also forces people to draft smarter e.g. three starting goalies possibly.

 

Remember, these are just guidelines and are things you need to discuss with your league.

 

I love me some rotisserie.

I love me some rotisserie.

 

Category Inclusion

 

I’ve already talked about a couple of the goalie stats. But this is what I favor:

 

  • If you want to get into actual “fantasy” hockey, I would recommend the stats I used in my draft guide. For skaters, this means: Goals, Assists, Shots On Goal, Penalty Minutes, Plus/Minus and Power-play points. For goalies: Wins, Shutouts, Goals-Against Average and Save Percentage.
  • I don’t like real-time stats (hits, blocked shots, face-off wins), again like I said in my guide, because what actually constitutes a “hit”, for example, is a subjective opinion of the statistician at the home rink. I feel that fantasy sports should be as objective as possible and real-time stats undermine that completely.
  • Although I don’t mind Short-handed Points, I’m not a fan. A defenseman clearing the puck off the glass on the penalty kill who has the puck picked up by a forward who left the zone too early and scores, gets that assist and he shouldn’t. Also, it diminishes the value of some players because typically a team has no more than 5-6 penalty-killing forwards and 4-5 penalty-killing defensemen.
  • Some people have inquired about including Losses as a goaltending statistic. With the advent of the shootout, I can’t endorse it. Johnathan Quick lost nine games last year despite allowing just one goal against. This is pathetic. It’s not a reflection of his goaltending rather his team’s inability to score at least one goal in 60 minutes. If you want to prevent people from streaming goalies, don’t include losses, use the roster moves cap I discussed earlier.
  • I don’t like using game-winning goals and hat tricks either. GWGs are complete luck (in my guide I talk about this with Radim Vrbata) and hat tricks almost completely exclude defensemen from an entire category. Also with hat tricks, in a 48-game schedule, there won’t be too many of them and it just creates a lot of ties in rotisserie scoring.
  • If everyone in your league is new to fantasy hockey, I would recommend a points-only league. This would be just goals and assists for skaters and wins and shutouts for goalies. This is a way to keep the complexity of a true roto league to a minimum and affords the newly-baptised puckheads the time to familiarize themselves with the players. After a season of a points-only league, then maybe the league is ready to go through the gruelling challenge of a full-year roto league. And it is gruelling; In a typical year, the regular season lasts 6 months.

 

Again, those are just my recommendations. But I think they are the simplest set-ups for leagues to either A) get accustomed to roto leagues or B) for new players to familiarize themselves with the NHL’s players.

 

Roster Sizes

 

Roster sizes are completely up to what the league wants to do. But I’ll go through what your rosters should be based off 10, 12 and 14 teamers. If your league is 16+, likely you know enough about fantasy hockey that I don’t need to tell you what to do.

 

Shallow

For a shallow league, I recommend this set-up: two Center, two LW, two RW, two Defensemen, two goalies, four bench spots and an IR spot. Some people have one goalie leagues, but I think that’s completely ridiculous. Regardless of whether you want a shallow or deep league, two goalie slots are necessary.

I never really understood the IR slot in hockey, because it’s rare a team ever does it. But it’s better to be safe than sorry. This set-up gives each team a stacked roster and can make it more fun for those less familiar with the games. If you don’t want to make it quite so shallow, add two defensemen, a (F) position and a utility spot. It’s still shallow, but not “Matt Moulson on your bench” shallow.

 

Deep

For a deeper league, I would go like this: 3-C, 3-RW, 3-LW, 2-F, 5-D, 1-Util, 2-G, 6 Bench. This empties the waiver pool to a significant extent and puts that much more focus on your draft. You can only make a 10-team league so deep without having 25-30 players on your starting roster and that’s just a bit ridiculous. But with this set-up if you’re in a 14-team league, now you’re looking at 350 players being drafted and that’s getting into deep territory. You can always make it as deep as you want (I have a writers league where 18 teams drafted 612 total players), but at a certain point it’s just blindly throwing darts in the dark and that really doesn’t prove anything.

 

Finally, I want to touch on one last point. If you’re in a money league, there should be a payout structure. I found the one to be the best is a simple 60%-30%-10%. This is applicable more to the H2H crowds than the roto crowds. If your rotisserie league (or points-only league) wants to give 100% to first place, I can’t really argue with that. But in a head-to-head league where there can be so much variance in a one-week winner-take-all, there should be a cushion just in case. It also makes the consolation games in the playoffs something worth playing for.

 

Remember, these are all just guidelines. But I feel it’s important to get this information out there to first-time commissioners. Always check to see what your league wants to do. Maybe you want to have deep leagues to enhance the draft experience, but perhaps your league mates don’t. Figure out what they want to do and keep my guidelines in mind. There’s no need to have 16 categories for your very first fantasy hockey league. It can get confusing at times even for those familiar with the game.

 

As always, you can reach me on Twitter @SlimCliffy for your fantasy hockey questions.