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For those that drafted him this year, or last year, or have him in a keeper, or pretty much if you have had Brett Lawrie on your fantasy baseball roster at any other point other than the last two months of the 2011 season, it has been a frustrating ride. He stole 30 bases in 2010 at AA and he hit 18 HRs in just 329 plate appearances at AAA before making his way to the big leagues. There was lots of hype about what this… amped up… third baseman could do for the rebuilding Blue Jays.

I wish it would give him wings on the basepaths.

To say that his performance over his last 600-or-so at-bats in the big leagues has been disappointing is a bit of an understatement. Chris Davis of Baltimore has 14 home runs this season in 158 at-bats, Brett Lawrie has 15 home runs in his last 645 major league at-bats. When you toss in the 59 RBI and 13 SB over his last 157 games, it hasn’t been quite what we expected.

Were expectations too high? If you average out what he’s done this year and last, he’s still a double-double (home runs and stolen bases) third baseman over the course of a “full” season (550 ABs-ish) and he turned 23 years old earlier this year. He’s been a serviceable fantasy player at times, but so has Ryan Roberts and no one drafts Brett Lawrie and hopes for Ryan Roberts. There is certainly still time for him to fulfill expectations if they are reasonable. But what exactly is wrong with Brett Lawrie? Let’s take a look.

The Problem

Where to begin?

• Lawrie is hitting .180 on the year coming into today with an OPS of .577, good for one point higher than Placido Polanco.
• His line drive rate on batted balls this year is 10.9%, nearly half of what it was last year (20.0%).
• For most of the season, he’s been hitting sixth, seventh or eighth. In a lineup that features strikeout kings like J.P. Arencibia and Colby Rasmus, this isn’t a batting position conducive to production. Not to mention he has Maicer Izturis and Munenori Kawasaki hitting behind him a fair amount, so those nine runs and 11 RBIs seem about right (no matter how wrong it is).
• He has one, one, stolen base attempt this year in 122 at-bats and was caught. Through two months last year (184 at-bats), Lawrie had 10 attempts (7 successful), or one attempt every 18 or so at-bats.
• Lawrie’s K% is up from last year, his BB% is down from last year and thus his K:BB rate is up from last year. In fact, it has gone from 1.94 K:BB in his rookie year to 3.88 as of today, literally twice as bad.

All in all, it’s not pretty for Lawrie and by extension, not pretty for his fantasy owners. There is some hope for him, though, so let’s see how he improves.

Diagnostic Testing

Batting Average

I’m going to go out on a limb and say Brett Lawrie will not hit .180 this year. Quite the limb eh? He had a reasonable sample size for us to draw on as to what his BABIP should be; it was .318 in 2011 (171 PAs) and .311 in 2012 (536 PAs). As of today, it sits at .205 for 2013. That number should get way, way higher here sooner rather than later. Once that BABIP creeps up to .300, Lawrie’s batting average should creep up as well. I would expect him to settle around .250 by the end of the season, there’s just no way this can continue.

Line Drive Rate

This is something that has already started to improve. If you want to know how rough of a start to the season it was for Lawrie (mind you, he started the season on the disabled list and missed most of spring training), he had one line drive in the month of April, a span of 52 at-bats. He has nine line drives so far in May, yet has a lower SLG% this month (.329) than last (.346). This is turning into a mess.

I have a theory on Lawrie’s struggles driving the ball. Anyone that follows me on Twitter knows I rant about how he moves his hands around in his at-bats. I’ll show you what I mean.

Here’s a home run from earlier this year (I know it’s a bad example to use a home run, but it’s incidental to my point). If you watch him as the pitch is approaching, his hands are still moving around and he essentially has to correct his hands as he’s making his swing. I am not a baseball scout, I have not played the game other than in back yards and softball. One thing I do know is that it’s much more difficult to correct the path of an object in motion than an object that is still. And I didn’t even take Grade 11 Physics.

By contrast, look at this single he hit in his rookie year. It’s at the 0:08 mark. His hands are quiet as he comes through the ball (you have to look closely) and he squares it into the outfield. Trying to square up a round ball with a round bat is hard enough without making mid-swing adjustments to the path of the bat. I won’t post other videos, but guys like Robinson Cano and Brandon Phillips are known to have this “bat wiggle” for lack of a better term but they quiet their hands down a split second before the pitch is delivered. Lawrie, it appears, does not.

Production

Once Jose Reyes is back healthy (hopefully within a month), there is no chance Brett Lawrie hits higher than 6th in the lineup. It will go Reyes-Cabrera-Bautista-Encarnacion-Lind and we may as well accept that. If Lawrie can hit 6th, maybe he drives in some runs. If Lawrie hits 8th behind Rasmus and Arencibia, 60 RBIs will be a struggle this year. There’s not a whole lot that can be done here and for those in keeper leagues, at least the top four guys will be at top of the order next year, too.

Stolen Bases

This is one that’s a bit confounding. Now, he hasn’t really been on base a whole lot (his ridiculous .241 OBP is about 100 points lower than what would be acceptable), but I would think he would have more than one attempt by now. It’s not an organizational thing with Toronto; even without Jose Reyes for most of the year so far they are still 7th in stolen bases in all of baseball. It might have to do with the fact that despite having above-average speed, he fucking sucks at stealing bases; Lawrie is 0/1 this year, had a 62% success rate last year and sports a 66.6% success rate for his career. A good base-stealer should be at 75%, so maybe he just isn’t a good base-stealer for a variety of reasons (Read: One reason, he can’t read a pitcher’s delivery). The coaches may have told him to tame down his attempts so if he isn’t going to steal bases, his fantasy value will take a MASSIVE hit for the year. If you can’t hit, you better be able to run, and he’s done neither.

K-Rate and BB-Rate

Lawrie can be… a bit jumpy at times. This Red Bullitude means he has been prone to breaking pitches. Is he ever. He’s seeing 4.1% less fast balls this year than he did last year and he’s not very good against breaking pitches. In fact, FanGraphs has fastballs being the only productive pitch for Lawrie this year (with split-fingered fastballs included) and anyone that watches him knows this all too well. Think I’m exaggerating? Check out Lawrie’s Slugging% HeatMap against breaking pitches. It’s not pretty.

On the numbers side, he’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone (and making less contact with them) as well as swinging at less pitches in the zone and making way less contact with them. I’m talking Brett Lawrie’s Z-Contact% this year (the rate at which he makes contact with pitches swung at in the zone), is down over 10% from last year. When you’re making contact at a drastically lower rate than just a year previous, there is something really wrong. Could it be his hands? Maybe. I’m not a scout or a coach. But there is something very, very wrong with Brett Lawrie’s swing (or eye, I suppose).

The Solution

IT WASN’T A FUCKING STRIKE

Lawrie hasn’t had a sustained hot streak yet this year. With the rate he’s hitting fly balls, he’s at 40.2% this year on batted balls, was just under 30% last year, he can push for 20 home runs. I think he probably settles in the 15-17 home run range. That batting average should come up but it’s been so bad so far that if he gets above .260 I would be more than thrilled.

He’ll crack 15 home runs, he’ll get to hopefully .260. Not a great season, but not deplorable for a 23-year old. However, the rest of the numbers won’t be there. If he can get to 60 runs and 60 RBIs, that should be a success considering where he’s hitting in that batting order with the pieces around him. Maybe they told him to quiet down on the basepaths so where his final stolen base total ends up, no one really knows. But if he gets to 10 swipes for the year, considering what we’ve seen so far, that will be a wonderful success.

Expecations are the problem. You cannot, cannot, score 100 runs with Munenori Kawasaki and Maicer Izturis driving you in. You cannot, cannot, crack 80 RBIs when the batters in front of you (Arencibia, Rasmus) strike out in over a third of their plate appearances. It seems people forget the context a player is placed in. It doesn’t matter how much talent you have, batting 8th in the 2013 Blue Jays lineup is not going to help counting stats. Period. Lessons learned for those that draft players out of context.

If you’re looking to buy low, I would refrain in a re-draft league. I like what Lawrie can do but he’s just a pit in the RBI/R departments and stolen bases are a crapshoot. If it’s a keeper and you can stomach possibly another year just like this one, go for it.

As always, a big thank you to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference for their information. They are invaluable resources.

In the first of many installments to come of a new series I call ‘Diagnostic Testing’, I am going to be looking at the underlying reasons why a particular player may be “under-performing”. I have under-performing in quotation marks because it is a relative term. Drafting Josh Hamilton as a second round player and having him perform like a below-replacement outfielder is serious under-performance that could mean the difference between winning and losing an entire season. Drafting Andre Ethier in the 14th or 15th round and having him perform like a below-replacement outfielder is under-performing but it shouldn’t make or break your year.

I will look at players that maybe some fantasy owners are nervous about because of either expectations or draft position. The reason for this series is two-fold:

1. You hear a lot of “buy low/sell high” arguments without really telling you why you should buy low or sell high and what you can expect to exchange in these situations. A proposition without context is fairly useless. 
2. Understanding why someone is under-performing is important when trying to guess (edumacatedly) whether they will turn it around or not. As I’m writing this, Jason Kipnis just hit his 5th home run in his last 62 at-bats after hitting zero home runs in his first 60 at-bats. He is hitting less ground balls compared to fly balls than he was last year so it was just a matter of time. It wasn’t cause he was sucking (although he was, in a sense, I guess), it’s cause some of those lifted balls hadn’t left the yard yet.

So without rambling further, what the fuck is going on with Eric Hosmer?

Hey is that an uppercut swing? …No? …Fuck.

The Problem

Where to start? Well at least he’s hitting for a higher batting average than last year. His BB% is about the same but the difference in batting average means his OBP is up to .344 for the season. Not an overwhelming mark, but a significant improvement over the .304 he posted in 2012.

There are two problems with Hosmer’s performance this year. The first problem is that his slugging% is only seven points higher (.351) than his OBP. He’s driving the ball better than he has in either of the last two years, settling at a reasonable 19% for the season, but he doesn’t seem to be finding the gaps. Hosmer has six extra-base hits on the season with only one home run and while we like to say “it’s early”, he’s probably already had about 20%-25% of his at-bats for the year and I don’t think anyone drafted Eric Hosmer with the intention of getting a single-digit home run total.

The second problem is his stolen bases. While the two SBs he has so far technically ties him for 2nd among major league first basemen, it’s not as many as we’d be looking for with the home runs lagging so far behind. We could probably take the one home run if he had six swipes so far, but only having two to go along with that dinger means he’s done almost next to nothing this year in the fantasy game so far.

Diagnostic Testing

So just saying Hosmer has only one home run this year is pretty useless except in the context of “Ha! Told you Hosmer would suck this year!” We want to know why he’s not driving the ball out of the park.

Thanks to our friends over at FanGraphs and Baseball Reference, all the information we need is at our fingertips, it’s just a matter of knowing how to use it.

Home Runs

Let’s start with fly balls. You can’t hit home runs without fly balls, that should go without saying. Some players can get away with hitting fewer fly balls than is usually necessary to post a good home run total. Jose Bautista currently has two more home runs than Miguel Cabrera despite hitting ten fewer fly balls this year because his HR/FB rate is over 10% higher than Cabrera’s on the season (and is typically at least 5% higher ever since Bautista has been non-shitty).

Eric Hosmer is not Jose Bautista, that is obvious. So if Hosmer wants to hit more home runs, he will need more fly balls. A lot of them. But he’s not getting a lot of fly balls. He’s not getting many at all. Hosmer has 19 total fly balls (I know, right?) on the season, one of them has left the yard. If he’s had 20% of his at-bats for the season (and that’s a best-case estimate) and he keeps up this current pace of 21.3% fly balls (for round numbers, we’ll say he hits 100 total fly balls for the year) and you multiply it by his career HR/FB rate (12% on fly balls), you end up with about 12 home runs.

You read that right. If Hosmer hits at his current career HR/FB rate and keeps up his 21.3% FB rate, he will hit twelve total home runs this year. That means he should hit 11 more home runs this year if all his numbers hold steady. You also have to factor in that his HR/FB rate could be facing its second straight year of decline, so he might not hit 12 home runs, it’s very possible he only hits eight or nine.

Stolen Bases

Problem number two is less critical than the first. His stolen bases are part of what always made Hosmer appealing to fantasy baseball owners. If a guy is tanking in a certain department for a while, speed can carry him. I was initially concerned with Hosmer only having two stolen bases so far this year (two attempts) in 111 at-bats until I looked at his first two years. In 2012, Hosmer only had one stolen base (two attempts) through his first 42 games of the season. In 2011, he only had two stolen bases (three attempts) in his first 57 games of the season. In both years he ended up with double-digit stolen bases and started picking up his pace both years in the months of June and July, so double-digit stolen bases is likely again.

For some reason, Hosmer thinks he’s a forty-year old television that needs time to warm up. As the temperature goes north, so should his swipe totals. This is not a concern for me.

The Solution

This is how I imagine most laboratory research is accomplished.

The solution is quite simple: he needs to hit more fly balls. He can’t, I repeat, he cannot hit 20 home runs with his current 21.3% fly ball rate. He is not a 20%-or-higher HR/FB hitter like Bautista, he is more a 15% HR/FB hitter like Joey Votto has apparently turned into. In fact, if you want a good comparable of what Eric Hosmer’s numbers will look like at his current rate, look at Votto’s final production totals from last year, subtract a few home runs add a few stolen bases and take about 70 points of the batting average. With the way things are going, it wouldn’t shock me to see Hosmer finish with a line in the .260-10-60-60-10 neighbourhood.

The second point I want to raise about the solution is this: the way hitters are taught to hit in certain parks matter. A line-drive hitter that calls AT&T Park home will obviously fair much worse in the home run department than a line-drive hitter in Yankee Stadium.

Listening to a Royals broadcast last week, the broadcast team was talking about how hitters were being taught to drive the ball in the organization, not lift the ball, because they play in spacious Kauffmann Stadium, which usually finishes outside the top-10 in runs scored. Whether there is validity to what the organization is consciously doing, I’ll leave that up to others who are more “in the know” than I am when it comes to issues like this. But we are naive to think that hitting coaches and managers aren’t adjusting their hitters to their home parks and instead are just teaching them to mash the ball (unless you’re a Blue Jays coach, sigh). The huge drop off in the FB% that Hosmer is putting up makes me think that there is something to that.

This all means that in most fantasy leagues (I’m thinking 12-team mixed or smaller), Hosmer’s fantasy relevance this year will be minimal. He is just not hitting enough fly balls to be a 20 home run hitter with his skill set. He’s barely hitting enough fly balls to be a 10 home run hitter. He’s only 23 so it’s not like all is lost. But for those hoping for one of a “post-hype sleeper”, this isn’t the droid you were looking for. At least not this year. 

So if you’re looking to “buy-low” on Hosmer, I would only be doing so in a keeper league. My hopes of him turning it around this year are next-to-none. In a keeper league, I would aim low with maybe an older player that’s started on a hot streak (Coco Crisp is due off the disabled list this week) or a middle-tier pitcher that can fill a need like Trevor Cahill. Anything more than that and you are taking an unnecessary risk, in my opinion.

I felt it appropriate that this post would be brought to you (unofficially, duh) by Will Smith.

Time to Get Jiggy Wit the program.

More specifically, by perhaps his “catchiest” song, ‘Gettin’ Jiggy Wit It’ (although in my mind, ‘Miami’ is right up there too).

It’s time to get jiggy with the fact that unless you have Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman and Mariano Rivera (and they all stay healthy), you are always going to be chasing saves. Other than perhaps if you stream a lot of pitching, your closers will (should) take most of your time on your fantasy baseball team. Remember, even if you punt saves there is still value in middle relievers in just about any format so don’t get complacent and say “well I’m not going to win the saves category anyway”. Even if you finished 3rd to last instead of last, the extra effort and consequent extra roto points could mean the difference between winning and losing an entire season. With all that said, let’s look at the last couple of days.

Brewers - We’ve seen Jose Valverde re-signed, now it was K-Rod’s turn. With Jim Henderson pretty much locking things down now – 9:1 K:BB ratio – I wouldn’t bet on Francisco Rodriguez taking Henderson’s job any time soon. He could be an add for holds leagues, however, so don’t dismiss him completely. I like to shit on K-Rod as much as the next guy but the fact is he sports a career 2.70 ERA in 720.2 IP with 11 K/9 and he’s only 31 years old.

Cardinals - Edward Mujica converted the save for St. Louis last night and a four-out save at that. Trevor Rosenthal still worked the eighth so there is still value for him if you count holds.

Kansas City - Kelvin Herrera had a hit and a walk in eighth and Greg Holland had a clean ninth while striking out the side on Wednesday afternoon. Both are valuable in their own right but Holland is the guy to own for saves (we’re pretty sure, I think, right?).

Oakland - If there were concerns between Sean Doolittle and Ryan Cook for holds, they have been put to rest for now. Cook now has holds in back-to-back games and owners should feel confident about him.

Tampa Bay - Much like gravity, the fact that I can just jinx players is a given. After praising Jake McGee’s praises on Twitter Wednesday, he gives up a home run to Steve Pearce (a guy in his 30s who now has 14 career MLB home runs) to take the blown save. He was clean other than that but at this rate, Joel Peralta will be the surefire eighth inning guy until McGee consistently puts up zeroes. Even then it’s by no means a given that he takes over.

That’s it for now. These updates will be coming every few days so make sure you check the website for new information! Until next time.

Welcome everyone to the very first installment of what will be a recurring post on FantasyTrade411 from me entitled “Closing Time”. The closer carousel will drive you to drink until two in the morning.

Surprisingly (maybe not), I still know most of the words to ‘The Boy Is Mine’.

In honor of the famous Semi-Sonic song, I will be posting an album cover from any band in 1998 when the song was released.

As anyone who has played fantasy baseball for any length of time can attest, closer is the most volatile position in fantasy baseball, maybe in all of the fantasy sports (as a hockey guy, I can tell you there’s similar volatility in goaltenders). Already this 2013 season, we’ve had closers replaced due to lack of performance.

I’ll tell you what this section will be all about. Initially, there will be a list of closers and next-in-lines. This list will be extremely fluid throughout the season. As such, I will be making regular updates throughout the year with all information closer-related. It may not be a job change in the ninth, it could be a job change in the eighth. Also, for those in deeper leagues, I will touch on guys that have been lights out in either the seventh or the eighth. I have a love/hate relationship with eighth (and seventh) inning guys; I love the stats they give me, I hate when they don’t close. Although, even if they don’t get the SV at the end of their name in the box-score, they can still contribute immensely to your numbers. And I haven’t even gotten to the value that they have in SOLDS (Saves+Holds) leagues. Also, eighth inning guys may not be everyday eighth inning guys. Match-ups, usage and game situation will determine this in many cases where the eighth inning guy isn’t named David Hernandez.

So here is the list of closers, eighth inning guys (for holds) and other interesting names. I will also have a quick blurb about each situation afterwards. Note: This is not where I think they should be, rather what their current situation is as of today. No one wants Jon Rauch pitching the eighth inning, but so be it. Names in green have their role locked-down barring injury and/or repeated implosions, black means they do for now and red means DL.

A Few Notes

Atlanta Braves: Move along, nothing to see here.

Arizona Diamondbacks: David Hernandez is the elite arm in that ‘pen and is a valuable commodity in SOLDS leagues. Heath Bell, on the other hand, is not.

Baltimore Orioles: The only interesting development here is whether Strop can overtake O’Day in the eighth. I wouldn’t bank on it.

Boston Red Sox: I pleaded with everyone who would listen to stay away from Hanrahan this year. With him on the DL and Bailey not a for-sure thing yet, keep Uehara and Lil’ Junechi (Junichi Tazawa) in mind.

Chicago Cubs: I’m not even… If your season hinges on the closing situation for the Cubs, I found a video that can help.

Chicago White Sox: Addison Reed has been lights-out so far this year, but that 2:1 K/BB ratio has to improve.

Cincinnati Reds: As a general rule, I stay away from closers-turned-relievers, but everything has been A-OK for Chapman so far. The same cannot be said for Jonathan Broxton (although admittedly, he’s only had one hiccup – but it was BAD), so for those in SOLDS leagues, keep an eye on Marshall.

Cleveland Indians: Chris Perez was on the worry-list for many this year (including myself). Outside of a lack of save opportunities, everything seems normal.

Colorado Rockies: Declining skills alert. Rafael Betancourt only has four strikeouts in 5.1 IP so far this year and has two walks. To this point, that 2:1 K/BB ratio would give him the worst of his career (at 38). It’s still early but have your waiver wire trigger finger at the ready if (once) he starts to implode. Matt Belisle would be the logical replacement.

Detroit Tigers: The Tigers haven’t had your typical save opportunity since the first game of the season, so we have little clarity. Jose Valverde was signed to a minor-league deal, but meh. For SOLDS leagues, I like Benoit and Alburquerque a lot.

Houston Astros: The Astros haven’t had a save opportunity yet this year. Veras is still the guy but he hasn’t looked too good so far in his appearances. The opportunities will be there for him eventually (right?) so we’ll have to take a wait-and-see approach.

Kansas City Royals: Holland and Herrera both have two saves while Aaron Crow has one. Hoo boy. Herrera has the skills to overtake Holland but as long as Holland doesn’t blow it, he won’t lose it. Both Holland and Herrera should be owned (think of the League/Jansen situation).

Los Angeles Angels: Ryan Madson should be back in a few weeks which will muddle things. On the other hand, Frieri has a special arm – he currently sports the highest K/9 among closers in baseball (discounting Herrera, as he’s not a true “closer” right now). Let’s hope manager Mike Scioscia makes the right decision (which means he probably won’t).

Los Angeles Dodgers: To quote a favorite contemporary lyricist of mine “We’ve been patiently waiting”. This is in reference Kenley Jansen eventually taking the closers role in La-La Land. Last year it was Javy Guerra and Brandon League, this year it’s League all on his own. Jansen is still the elite arm, League is throwing smoke and mirrors right now.

Miami Marlins: Steve Cishek is the only person I’m owning out of this bullpen (for now, anyway).

Milwaukee Brewers: “And we have a tie! For early season tirefires, we have the Cubs and Brewers running away with it”. Jim Henderson is the guy to own but there has to be a regression coming. Henderson has never shown the strikeout ability in 628 IP in the minors that he’s shown over the last 35+ IP in the majors.

Minnesota Twins: I’ve been a Perkins fan for a couple years now and despite early season hiccups, he’s still the guy to own in Minnesota. For SOLDS leagues, keep an eye on Jared Burton as he has 61 K to just 18 BB in his last 67.1 IP for the Twinkies.

New York Mets: The eighth may get a little confusing as Frank Francisco is now on his rehab stint but Bobby Parnell is still the man to close games as long as manager Terry Collins isn’t drunk at the wheel.

New York Yankees: Rivera. Robertson. That is all.

Oakland Athletics: There haven’t been many save opportunities in Oakland this year but Balfour is still in the ninth. I love Ryan Cook’s skills though and both should be owned in most formats.

Philadelphia Phillies: Papelbon’s leash is longer than [insert penis joke here] but the only thing that’s saved him from an even higher ERA than his current 3.60 is a very friendly .167 BABIP (it was over .300 the last two years). Should Papelbon flop, Adams will be a great option.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Jason Grilli, much to my surprise, has gotten off to a fantastic start this year so there’s not much developing here. Also off to a great start is the much-maligned Mark Melancon (alliteration WHAT?!). He is the guy you want in SOLDS leagues or as insurance for Grilli.

San Diego Padres: Huston Street has looked shaky so far this year – he’s allowed at least 1 ER in 2/4 appearances – so the guy I’m looking at in a just-in-case scenario is Luke Gregerson. Not that I’m particularly high on him, I just think he’s next in line. I will be keeping an eye on Brach, however.

San Francisco Giants: Romo has been very good so far this year converting 7/8 save opportunities with zero walks and 12 strikeouts. That is elite.

St. Louis Cardinals: With Jason Motte on the DL (possibly to miss the year) and Mitchell Boggs looking like he belongs in the Cubs bullpen, the closer who will get the most saves for the Cardinals may not even be on the roster yet (as was suggested yesterday on Sirius XM Fantasy Radio). For now, it’s still Boggs and a mix of Mujica/Rosenthal in the eighth.

Seattle Mariners: Tom Wilhelmsen.

Tampa Bay Rays: They only have four wins and one save opportunity, but it’s Rodney in the ninth until further notice. Keep an eye on Jake McGee though (even if it’s via trade).

Texas Rangers: After Joe Nathan, there ain’t a wholeheckuvalot (that’s all one word, right?) until Joakim Soria comes back next month.

Toronto Blue Jays: Santos to the DL has many of my fantasy teams upset. If it was ever in doubt, Casey Janssen has the ninth inning locked down now. It’s a best-guess as to who gets the holds though(Loup, Esmil Rogers, Brett Cecil, Darren Oliver).

Washington Nationals: Rafael Soriano will close but Drew Storen will get secondary opportunities and holds (he already has one blown save!).

Well that’s it for now. As I said and most are well aware, the closer position is very fluid and volatile. I will be updating here as new information becomes available. Don’t forget: even though we’re always chasing saves, that doesn’t mean other relievers are not valuable. As of right now, there are currently seven relievers among the top-22 RPs in standard roto leagues that don’t have a single save: Joe Ortiz (TEX), Casilla (SFG), O’Day (BAL), Mark Melancon (PIT), Lindstrom (CHW), Hector Santiago (CHW), Bastardo (PHI). There is value for relievers beyond saves, you just need to be creative. Until next time.

With only a few days left before most fantasy baseball drafts will be done,

This is a seriously underrated show.

this feels like the proper time to do something like this. I’ve been thinking about the player combination series that I did and one thing came to me; things change. The first one was posted five weeks ago. As anyone who has ever done fantasy baseball before knows, a whole lot can change over five weeks of any portion of the season, including Spring Training.

There have been injuries (Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Jason Motte to name a few), there have been demotions (Ricky Romero, my boy) and there has been wild, baseless speculation (Fat Mike Trout).

What these changes do is allow us to take advantage of circumstances. There are two circumstances I’m going to look at in particular. I’m going to do an extension of the player combination series and look at one position in particular. A position I believe to be deeper than people realize: Shortstop. This is a position where the circumstances given to us may allow us to draft an elite player at that position without drafting like it. It’ll make sense.

New York Yankees and Eduardo Nunez

Playing time shouldn’t be a problem for him in the first two months. (Nunez, SS-NYY)

The New York Yankees are going into this season limping, at best. With Teixeira, Rodriguez and Granderson all out for a significant amount of time and Derek Jeter likely starting the season on the disabled list, there will be lots of playing time to go around. One name that intrigues me (and consequently has landed him on many of my teams) is Eduardo Nunez. The timing of this playing time is more important than anything, for the purposes of this article. With both Teixeira and Rodriguez out for at least the first two months of the season and Derek Jeter likely on the 15-Day DL to start the season, there will be lots of time for Nunez to get his at-bats through the first two months of the season. Even if Jeter returns, it’s not a stretch to assume Nunez will be playing third base with Youkilis at first and Juan Rivera anywhere but on the baseball field. This is to say I believe that for at least the first eight weeks of the regular season, Nunez will get regular at-bats.

This is important for fantasy. Nunez, in his limited role through the first three years of his career, has been a serviceable replacement. In 448 at-bats over three season (309 of them coming in 2011), Nunez has a line of .272-7-48-64-38. That speed is important. With 448 at-bats not quite being a full season, only two shortstops have reached at least 38 steals in either of the last two years: Jose Reyes (both years) and Everth Cabrera in 2012. That’s it. No other short-stop has at least 38 steals in 2011 or 2012. The one thing that would seem to hinder Nunez is that he would likely bat at the bottom of the order once Jeter returns. Anything can happen, but the R/RBI totals won’t be what they can be if he hit first or second, obviously.

What’s even more important for Nunez is that he brings a decent approach to the right side of the plate, something the Yankees desperately need. For his career, Nunez has a .332/.436/.768 line against LHP versus a .308/.346/.654 versus RHP. This would, in my estimation, gain him more at-bats throughout the season.

If Nunez can get 160 at-bats before being relegated to possible part-time duty (and even that is not for sure, as I’ve said, anything can happen in this kind of time frame), he should be a serviceable replacement. At a minimum, I expect two homeruns with a .270 BA and 12 stolen bases. Because of his uncertainty with the lineup, I’ll let the runs and RBIs fall where they may. Give yourself the added bonus that he could get 3B eligibility sometime this season.

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Hanley Ramirez

He’s still an elite talent at short-stop. (Ramirez, 3B/SS-LAD)

A victim of a WBC injury, Hanley Ramirez is expected to miss the first two months of the season with a thumb injury (I hear the light bulbs turning on in your collective heads). Say what you will about him, he’s a shortstop who’s gone 20/20 in five of the last six seasons, missing in 2011 because of only 92 games played.

For his career, he’s averaging a long-ball every 24.8 at-bats with his three-year average being once every 27 at-bats. As far as steals go, he’s averaged one every 16.5 at-bats for his career with his three-year average being once every 20 at-bats.

With his surgery being done five days ago and the assumption that he will miss around eight weeks, it is very possible that he could be back by the middle of May. But just in case it takes longer than that, I will operate under the assumption he does not play until June. This would mean he would get to probably 400 at-bats for the year but again, I will err on the side of caution and say he will get 350 at-bats this year.

If he plays at his three-year average, he should hit 13 home runs and add around 17 steals to that. What will his batting average be? Good question. His BAbip has plummeted the last two years from what he did earlier in his career, so let’s operate with an assumption of .255.

I know what’s running through your head – What if he doesn’t return to form when he comes back? This reminds me of my Statistics class days back in University.

A sensitivity analysis, for those who may have not taken Stats, is what would happen if things occur better or worse than expectations. So what if Hanley comes back and, say, performs 25% worse than his three-year average for homeruns and stolen bases. This would still give him 10 homeruns (one every 33.75 at-bats) and 14 stolen bases (one every 25 at-bats). This does not apply to batting average, or at the very least I don’t expect him to .187. I’ll use the base-line for his injury-plagued 2011 and say .243.

So What Does It Give Us

If you take what we can expect based on the at-bats we anticipate from these players this is what we will have for the power/speed combo:

Hanley Ramirez (350 at-bats): .250/13/17

Eduardo Nunez (160 at-bats): .270/2/12

Aggregate (510 at-bats): .257/15/29

Keep in mind, that’s a conservative estimate. There will be opportunities to fill in Nunez through-out the season if Hanley gets days off. Not to mention days the Yankees are playing when the Dodgers are not. I could see this combination get to 20/35. For reference, two shortstops in all of baseball hit 15 home runs and stole 25 bases last year: Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins. And Rollins only hit .250.

But remember that sensitivity analysis. What if Hanley comes back and isn’t “quite right”? This is what you get then:

Hanley Ramirez (350 at-bats): .243/10/14

Eduardo Nunez (160 at-bats): .270/2/12

Aggregate (510 at-bats): .251/12/26

Even with 25% of expected production from Hanley, you still accomplish double-digit homeruns and at least 25 steals. Want to hazard a guess how many shortstops accomplished that last year? Three. The previous two as mentioned and add Starlin Castro. And still a better batting average than Jimmy Rollins.

Why Should People Draft These Two Guys

Your team (and each position) should fit together like a puzzle. Or in this case, like a Megazord.

As I explained already, Nunez will get the at-bats and HanRam will be back by the end of May. With the injury, Hanley’s ADP is plummeting, as it should. The latest that Hanley is being taken is 105^th, according to Mock Draft Central. Let’s say that to get him, you need to spend an eighth round pick (this would be up to 96^th overall in a 12-team league). Also according to MDC, Nunez’s ADP is 346^th, or around the 29^th round in a 12-team draft.

From what have I have logically shown you we can expect from the use of these two players because of their respective situations, the most likely worst-case scenario (obviously aside from season-ending injuries from either of them) would give you a player equivalent(ish) to what Starlin Castro did last year, which landed him as the #6 SS by the end of the fantasy season.

If you’re worried about RBIs and runs, Hanley averaged an RBI every 5.7 at-bats last year. Over a 350 at-bat season, that’s 61 RBIs. His run/AB pace would give him 41 runs over that same 350 AB pace. Who knows what Nunez will end up with (hence why I didn’t really bother with RBI/R estimations), but it would be pretty safe to assume he can give you at 20 runs and 15 RBI through his first 160 at-bats. So as a baseline (although I’m not putting a lot of stock in it), give them 61 runs and 76 RBIs total for the season. That might seem low until you realize only two short-stops had at least 75 RBIs last year, Hanley and Castro. But like I said, I’m not worrying about R/RBIs for this scenario, I’ll just chalk down 60/60 and be very happy with anything else I can get.

So for the price of an eighth round and a 29^th round pick, you can give yourself roughly (at worst) the same numbers as Starlin Castro last year, who finished with a value of a mid-seventh round pick (77th overall).

Oh yeah, there’s upside! What if Hanley comes back and goes off like Jimmy Rollins did last year when J-Roll went 20/20 after the month of May. It’s not like Hanley doesn’t have the talent to do it. Also, what if Nunez goes off to start the season and goes 5/15 before Hanley comes back. Then for the price of an eighth round and a 29^th round pick, you could draft and combine two players to give yourself possibly the best short-stop in fantasy for 2013 (ehhh, maybe second-best to Tulo).

Finish Him

The point I’m trying to make is that if you draft Hanley in the eighth round and take a flier on Nunez in your reserve rounds, you could be drafting a combination that will give you the best fantasy player at that position this season. And what’s the worst-case scenario? That combination probably returns the eighth-round value that you spent to draft Hanley in the first place.

Something that gets over-looked a lot in our industry is strategy. It’s nice to have rankings and dollar values but when it all comes down to it, the rankings and values don’t mean shit unless employed with a useful strategy. Part of developing a strategy is taking advantage of inefficiencies. The perception that drafting Hanley Ramirez means you can’t succeed in having an elite player at short-stop for the length of the whole season is false. You’re drafting numbers, not players. Some people just lack the proper strategy (and sometimes, creativity).

This afternoon (for me), I took part in a 15-team mixed snake draft that was presented by Rotowire. It was opened by Rotowire writer Howard Bender and I would like to extend him my thanks for the invitation.

This draft was a mix of both readers and Rotowire members like Mike Gottlieb  and Derek VanRiper as well as Jeff Halpin from Fox Sports and Mike Stein from Fantasy Judgment. We were also joined by Kyle Elfrink of “The Drive” on SiriusXM Radio.

Going into a draft like this you know two things:

Have one of these handy on draft day.

1. You better have Plans A, B,C and D on the go with an Emergency Plan on top of that. These are guys who know their ins and outs of a draft. Your sleepers are probably their sleepers too. This is why tiering players is so important. 
2. As with most mocks of this nature, you better grab hitters with your first 4-5 picks. Fifteen teams and industry experts means hitting will be going off the board at a rapid rate so you better get them while you can.

As I said, this was a snake draft where I had the 6th overall pick. It was a two-catcher league with 5xOF, 9xP and CI/MI with one UTIL and no bench.

I am going to post the complete results and talk about some of the interesting picks (for one reason or another) at the end, along with my final roster.

You’ll notice that Cano fell to seventh after being a near-consensus top-5 pick for the last month (he’s currently #4 on Fantasy Pros and has slipped now to #8 on Mockdraft Central). I don’t see him as a top-10 pick at this point but he’s still the clearcut #1 2B for 2013 so going at seven sounds about right. Jose Bautista sneaks into the top-10 and I think that from 9-12 is about right for him. As was mentioned in the draft chat, this is a case where Spring Training information is useful. Bautista’s wrist seems fine and he should return to 40+ home run status this year. I was very happy to take Votto at Pick 6 as in my mind, he’s the #1 first baseman. Troy Tulowitzki’s draft position has crept up in the last few weeks in case you haven’t noticed. He’s gone from the end of the 2nd round in 12 teamers to what would now be the start of round two. The talent has always been there, we’ll see about the health.

Josh Hamilton’s value has been bouncing like a ping-pong ball. Myself and my co-host Tony Mauriello took Hamilton 11th overall in an NFBC draft we completed recently.

Coming off a bender. And I’m not talking curveballs. (Hamilton, OF-LAA)

He also fell to the third round in the most recent Tout Wars Mixed League Draft. That draft is also a 15-teamer so that would put him in the fourth round of 12-team drafts.

Alex Gordon and Craig Kimbrel both went in the middle of the third round. Gordon could be a fantastic player hitting second in that Kansas City lineup but ahead of other outfielders like Michael Bourn, Shin-Soo Choo and Matt Holliday is a bit early for my taste. But if this is a particular guy you like, you have to take him when you think you can get him.

You’ll notice Chris Davis crept into the top-75. I think what he did last year is repeatable and with the dual eligibility, I cannot argue with this pick. I don’t think he has more upside than this pick but I think he’ll come close to returning value.

Both Ike Davis and Willin Rosario were drafted in the top-90. Ike’s value will depends on his batting average and you can see how having to draft two catchers changes values. You won’t see Rosario going in the sixth round of many one-catcher leagues. But a two-catcher league with 15 teams? Absolutely.

Pablo Sandoval fell all the way to pick 105. This is a pick that can turn out either ok or great, depending on how many games Sandoval plays. He is always a threat to hit .300/25/90 if he can get to 550 at-bats.

Upon hearing news of Zack Greinke’s problematic (or not) elbow, he has fallen like a brick, going the equivalent of five rounds later in 12-team drafts. I’m just staying away in general, although I was starting to get tempted at this value.

The greatest value pick IMO is Brandon Morrow at R10 P1 by John Halpin of Fox Sports. If Morrow stays healthy he is an SP3 with SP2 upside so there is a lot to like about this pick.

You can see the effects of Spring Training in the 13th round where Jedd Gyorko going off the board before a proven (but declining) player like Dan Uggla and the prospect that everyone was talking about a month ago, Josh Rutledge.

Kyle Lohse fell all the way to R17 P10. I am no proponent of Lohse, but you have to think he jumps up 3-4 rounds if he signs somewhere tonight and we do this same draft tomorrow.

Chris Young is an interesting pick at round 21, pick 1. He still has the skills to go 20/20 if he has enough playing time – he’s done it every year he’s had 550 at-bats except for 2008. Now, playing at O.co is not playing at Chase Field, but he could still push for 20 HRs with enough time in the field.

All three Detroit “closers” (Rondon, Alburquerque and Benoit) went in the last five rounds. Whoever gets the most saves wins this one. And your guess is as good as mine.

Here is my lineup with their draft rounds beside them:

Player Team Acquired

1B Joey Votto CIN R1 P6

2B Dan Uggla ATL R13 P6

3B Evan Longoria TB R2 P10

3B Trevor Plouffe MIN R18 P10

SS Erick Aybar ANA R10 P10

SS Eduardo Nunez NYY R15 P6

SS Alexei Ramirez CHW R17 P6

C Jesus Montero SEA R8 P10

C Russell Martin PIT R21 P6

OF Yoenis Cespedes OAK R3 P6

OF Shin-Soo Choo CIN R4 P10

OF Alex Rios CHW R6 P10

OF Hunter Pence SF R9 P6

OF Michael Saunders SEA R12 P10

SP Max Scherzer DET R5 P6

SP Johnny Cueto CIN R7 P6

SP Ryan Vogelsong SF R14 P10

SP Ross Detwiler WAS R19 P6

SP Ricky Romero TOR R20 P10

SP Bud Norris HOU R23 P6

RP Glen Perkins MIN R11 P6

RP Ryan Cook OAK R16 P10

RP Joaquin Benoit DET R22 P10

I had drafted Nunez to be my MI option but he went to utility instead, so there is that.

He might be the best value on the Bronx Bombers this year. (Nunez, SS-NYY)

But I feel like my outfield should easily go 100/80 and I have lots of power in my infield. The additional 30 stolen bases I think I can get from Nunez and 20 from Aybar should be enough to give me the speed I would need to contend. Also, once Nunez gets enough games in, he’ll have 3B/SS/MI/CI eligibility and that’s tremendous flexibility in a league like this.

I’m happy enough with my two catchers but not thrilled. I should be able to get 35-40 HRs from them and they will likely be relied upon in their respective lineups to drive in runs, hitting fifth or sixth for their respective teams at worst. The batting average hopefully won’t be too much of a drag, although I worry about Martin whose BABIP has been declining almost like clockwork since 2008.

I’m a fan of my three closers. Perkins is an underrated pitcher on a shitty team, I’m wagering that Benoit will get the most saves out of that Detroit trio while Cook is just one injury (which has already occurred) away from being the full-time closer.

The top end of my pitching staff is really good with Scherzer, Cueto and Vogelsong while I expect Detwiler to be solid. Romero and Norris are darts, but that’s what the waiver wire is for. Also, once you get to the 300th pick (I took Romero at pick #295), there’s really no such thing as a “bad pick”.

So that was the draft and that’s how I see my team. How do you think I did? What else sticks out to you? Feel free to leave a comment behind or drop me a line on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

I hope this helps give insight, to those looking for it, from some of the bigger names in fantasy sports!

Well here we are. The conclusion of this four part experiment.

I’m not even sure what this means.

I hope you learned a little bit when reading about my theory of player combinations and average value. Remember, it’s not “I need this player” or “I need that player”. It’s “I need these stats” or “I need those stats”. The actual player giving you those stats is irrelevant in the sense that you can’t get attached. Obviously some players have greater health risks or are inhibited by their situation (ahem, Stanton), but for the most part you’re looking for numbers and not players.

For a recap of the three parts so far:

Part 1: Alcides Escobar and Kyle Seager (Peanut Butter Jelly Time)

Part 2: Will Middlebrooks and Paul Konerko (Alpha and Omega)

Part 3: Melky Cabrera and Ichiro (The Bounceback Edition)

To finish this series, I’m going to look at a pair of catchers. The reason I’m avoiding pitchers is because I already did an article on punting saves and finding the five category pitcher. If you haven’t perused, you can do so here. This should give you a good idea of how I go about drafting pitchers (more specifically relievers) in drafts.

Now, to the point of this article.

Two-catcher leagues. The use of these types of leagues is always up for debate. My personal feeling is that catchers are the kickers of fantasy baseball. Why the hell would I want to draft two of them? I’d just as rather add another utility and skip catchers altogether. I’m probably in the minority but that’s just how I feel about it.

Nonetheless, catchers are a staple of almost every league and two-catcher leagues change the way you draft. You’ll rarely catch me (see what I did there?!) drafting a catcher in the first 15 rounds of any 12-team league. A two-catcher league is a different beast. You don’t want Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Russell Martin as your two catchers. Those matching .220 batting averages will decimate your team.

For this reason I recommend taking one catcher earlier than normal. Not Buster Posey-early, but you should still grab one in the first 10 rounds.

So in honor of the NFBC team that my podcast co-host @TheTonyM and I drafted on Sunday, I present to you the Smash ‘N’ Dash of the catcher world – Victor Martinez and J.P. Arencibia.

The Smash

I wouldn’t leave too many hangers when this guy is up. (Arencibia, C-TOR)

J.P. Arencibia was a highly touted catching prospect before making his big league appearance in 2010. He had 21 HRs in 500 PAs in AAA in 2009 with 32 in 459 PAs in 2010 before his call up. This is some serious power.

So far in the majors, Arencibia has continued that power trend. In 2011, he had 23 long-balls in 486 PAs with 18 HRs in 372 PAs in 2012. That last total is suppressed despite a career-high 14.8% HR/FB rate because he missed six weeks with a broken hand off a foul tip at the end of July.

I know it’s foolish to look at a 162-game pace for a catcher but it provides good comparisons across other catchers. This is Arencibia’s 162-game pace for his Major League career:

.229 BA/ 29 HR/ 94 RBI/ 65 R/ 1 SB

That’s some serious thunder.

If you want to compare, here’s the 162-game pace of Carlos Santana, who’s going in the fourth round per Mock Draft Central’s ADP:

.262/ 26 HR/ 95 RBI/ 95 R/ 5 SB

So you can take Santana in the fourth round (maybe 5th), or Arencibia in the 14th round (which is his ADP per MDC). You tell me who is returning better value? Don’t forget, they’re the same age.

To be sure, if you draft Arencibia, you better be able to eat a .230 average. But in nearly 900 PAs in his career, Arencibia sports an awesome 13.9% HR/FB ratio. Also, Arencibia has a very good ISO of .211 for his career. For comparison’s sake, Buster Posey’s career ISO is .189 and Santana’s is .195. Finally, there’s only two catchers with more HRs over the last two seasons than Arencibia: Matt Wieters and Santana. That’s it.

J.P. can absolutely mash the ball. He’s also hitting in one of the better lineups in the American League this year. There’s also no pressure on him any more coming up from the minors. Uber-prospect Travis d’Arnaud was traded in the off-season as part of the R.A. Dickey package so Arencibia is now The Man behind the plate for the Blue Jays in the near-future.

Arencibia is a power-hitter. There is no way around that. He’ll strike out a ton (think Pedro Alvarez) so that will probably leave him in the .230-.240 range. But he’ll also provide perhaps the highest HR total among all catchers and in conjunction with that lineup, should get up to 75+ RBIs. Considering he’s already proven he can be a top-1o catcher in fantasy (he was in 2011), a full and healthy season should see him return to top-10 status.

The Dash

He’s coming for YOU, AL pitchers. (Martinez, C/DH-DET)

I don’t mean dash as in base stealing, so that can be a bit misleading. What I do mean is ‘dash’ as in a complete opposite approach than the one that Arencibia employs.

As of today, Mockdraft Central has Victor Martinez as the tenth catcher going off the board (wait, what?). While I expect him to go higher (probably the 5th or 6th catcher at the latest), he’s still being taken later than the Mauers and Molinas of the world.

Martinez is very, very good at the plate. There was less than 1% difference between his BB-rate in 2011 (7.7%) and his K-rate (8.6%) which is absolutely outstanding. He hit .300+ in three straight seasons before missing all of 2012. He also had 100+ RBIs in two of three seasons before the fateful 2012 year. Hitting behind Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera means that V-Mart should have lots of baserunners in front of him to knock in and 100+ RBI in his future again.

Martinez will be used primarily as a designated hitter, so that should save him from tiring out. He is 35-years of age and coming of major knee surgery so there has to be concern about wear and tear. But at the same time, if he is the DH, he should get close to 550 at-bats. I don’t think he’ll hit .330 again – his BABIP of .343 in 2011 was the highest of his career – but I think .310 is a reasonable assumption.

The key to Martinez’s value will be his home runs. He is a player that typically hit anywhere between 8.5% – 10% as far as HR/FB rates go, but it plummeted to 4.9% in 2011. This was despite a GB/FB rate of 0.79 (career: 0.80). So whether this was the start of a trend as he makes his way through the power decline years of his career or just an outlier is an educated guess. My hope is that he improves on his 2011 HR total of 12 at least a little bit and gets to 14-15. Either way, as long as he gets to double-digit HRs, the batting average and RBIs will be there for him.

The Value of Smash ‘N’ Dash

On Yahoo!, Martinez’s average cost in auction drafts is $13 with Arencibia’s being $1 (guess who the better value is in one-catcher leagues). This means you can acquire this combination at the most for about $18 on draft day. In snake drafts, it’ll probably cost you an 8th and a 15th round pick.

So what am I looking for from them this year?

Arencibia: .230/ 26 HR/ 80 RBI/ 70 R/ 0 SB

Martinez: .310/ 14 HR/ 100 RBI/ 80 R/ 0 SB

Aggregate: .272/ 20 HR/ 90 RBI/ 75 R/ 0 SB

In case you were wondering, there was one catcher who achieved all of those aggregate marks last year: Buster Posey. You can get two catchers for an average value of $8-$10 each that will produce like only one other catcher did last year who is going for at least $25 by himself in auctions.

The last advantage to this duo is that you have a pretty good idea of what they’ll give you. Guys like Salvador Perez and Willin Rosario don’t have the track record of Martinez and Arencibia, while guys like Jesus Montero and Ryan Doumit are hitting in lineups that are inferior to those that the Tigers and Jays boast. You have a pretty good idea of what you’re getting in this Smash ‘N’ Dash combo and they’re hitting in very good lineups. If I was in a two-catcher league (and I am), these are two guys I would be firmly fixated on.

Conclusion

I hope you were able to learn a thing or two over the course of this series. There are three main points I was trying to make the entire time:

1. The numbers, not the players, matter. What can a targeted player reasonably give you in a healthy season with the lineup they are in?
2. What are you looking for with a given draft pick? Home runs? Steals? Both? Neither? You have to know how the rest of your team is constructed and draft accordingly. Unless you have a ‘punting’ strategy in mind, you have to maintain balance.
3. There is value to be had at every position in the latter parts of the draft, you just have to know how to find them. Give me Victor Martinez in the 10th over Joe Mauer in the 6th any day. 

If you miss on your ‘guys’ early in the draft, these player combination posts can help you later in the draft to fill in holes that you may have. Know the targets you have to hit to be at the top of different roto categories and draft accordingly afterwards. Good luck in your 2013 baseball drafts!

Are you serious about preparing for your 2013 fantasy baseball drafts? Do you like to win? Even if you said no to both, check out the official FantasyTrade411 Draft Guide. There’s two things I have used in my drafts thus far: My own personal rankings and this draft guide.  Everything you need to succeed in 2013 is available here!