I received a Twitter question a few days ago that asked who I felt better about between Gio Gonzalez and Yovani Gallardo for the rest of the season.
We’re all disappointed in you, as well. (Gallardo, SP-MIL)
I went with Gio with my rationale being that his numbers were a bit more in line with his career numbers (his exceptional 2012 aside), so we kind of knew what we should expect. For me, at this point, I just don’t know what to expect from Gallardo.
That got me thinking a little bit; what the hell is wrong with YoGa?
The Problem
Gallardo is one of those pitchers where you can look at one skill and you say “book it”. With Yovani, it was strikeouts. As long as he was healthy, you could book 200 Ks over the course of a season. The margin for error for getting the 200 Ks was slight – he had between 200-207 strikeouts four consecutive years – but even a slight drop off wouldn’t ruin his value.
The 2013 season has not been especially kind to Gallardo’s strikeout rate. For the first time in five years, his K/9 has dipped below 9.0, resting at 7.1 for the season. At his current innings per outing and strikeout pace, there’s a chance Gallardo won’t crack 150 Ks this year.
Both of Gallardo’s ratios are inflated. What we see in his WHIP (1.38) is high, but not completely abnormal from him; YoGa’s lowest WHIP of his career is 1.21 in 2011 and hasn’t been below 1.25 in any other season. He also currently sports an ERA of 4.74, more than a full run above his career average (3.72) and nearly a full run of his previous career-worst in 2010 (3.84).
Gallardo had been a notorious WHIP killer (this season brings his career WHIP over 1.30), but the ERA and strikeouts certainly are not what we expect, especially from a pitcher who is just 27 years old and had such a track record of success.
Diagnostic Testing
Strikeouts, WHIP and ERA
Like I said, Gallardo’s K/9 is considerably lower than what we expected, but why?
Gallardo’s fastball has been an issue. Two years ago, his average fastball was 92.6 (per Pitchf/x). Last year, this average fell to 91.7 and that fall continued this year to 90.6. Gallardo, in a span of two seasons, has lost two miles per hour off of his four-seam fastball.
Now, I’m not one of those people that exclaims to everyone within earshot “HEY THIS GUY LOST SOME OF HIS VELOCITY HE’S HURT AND SHITTY NOW,” but I do think that it has relevance elsewhere.
Here’s a mini-chart (as always, thank you FanGraphs) of his four-seam and two-seam fastball usage and velocity over the last 2+ seasons:
|
Four-Seam |
Two-Seam |
|
|
2011 |
45.3% (92.6 MPH) |
13.9% (92.8) |
|
2012 |
41.7% (91.7) |
14.5% (91.5) |
|
2013 |
29.6% (90.6) |
23.1 % (90.5) |
The prevalence of this two-seam fastball seems to have had the biggest effect on his strike-out rate. These are the pitches that he used to strike out batters, represented as pitches/strike-out.
| Four-Seam | Two-Seam | Slider | Curveball | Change-Up | |
| 2011 | 21.47 | 21.77 | 18.08 | 9.47 | 37 |
| 2012 | 16.84 | 28 | 23.27 | 11.30 | 7.88 |
| 2013 | 27.33 | 40 | 16.33 | 17.06 | 10.75 |
You’ll notice that his two-seam has traditionally been his worst strike-out pitch (he actually only threw 37 change-ups in 2011, a bit more than one per start).
At this point, it should be noted, that Gallardo’s two-seam has provided the least value it ever has for him at -4.2 runs above average (per Pitchf/x values) and his four-seam is at its second-worst value of his career at +1.4 runs above average.
This brings the whole correlation/causation argument into it and whether or not the rise of his two-seam usage has had that much of an effect. We can have that debate, absolutely. There are other aspects to take into account like location, movement and velocity. But what I see is Gallardo using his worst strike-out pitch (two-seam) more than any other pitch except his four-seam (and that gap is closing). Oh, it gets worse.
Gallardo’s batted-ball HR/FB rate is a career-high 15.8%, having given up nine home runs already this year. Over 44% of these home runs (4/9) have come off of his two-seam fastball (23.1% of his pitches). Not only that, but hitters are hitting .329 off of his two-seam fastball, versus .275 on his four-seam, .242 off his curveball, .260 off his slider and .167 off his infrequent change-up.
You would have to think that that home run rate falls. His fly-ball% is 22.8% on batted balls, over 10% lower than his career average of 33.9%. This is where numbers can be a bit screwy with you; his 1.0 HR/9 is the exact same as his career average despite the fact that he’s giving up 11.1% less fly-balls than his career average. Surprise, surprise, his HR/FB% on his two-seam is a whopping 20.3%, no other pitch is over 13% (his slider is at 12.9%).
The Solution
Peace, love and YoGa, everyone.
Quite simply, he has to use his two-seam less. I know that it’s more complicated than that, in-game pitch selection, repertoire adjustments as a pitcher looks for continued success and comfort-level throwing a pitch are a significant portion of this problem. But, whatever the problem is with that particular pitch, it’s just not working; his 9.4 H/9 are a career high. That .329 that batters are hitting off of his two-seam is by far the worst opponent’s batting average on any pitch he’s thrown at least 150 times in any season. His previous worst was a .286 off of his slider in 2007, his rookie year when he only threw 110 innings (and in a complete shocker, tied for next-worst after that was a .275 opponent’s batting average off of his two-seam last year).
If he starts using his two-seam less (and maybe that turns it into more of a strike-out weapon?), that could lead to fewer hits. Fewer hits means fewer base-runners, fewer base-runners should mean a lower ERA and WHIP. If he can locate his four-seam and use his breaking pitches (which all have good swinging-strike rates), we could see more strike-outs. I do worry about his fastball, though, as it’s not only his two-seam that’s been bad, it’s his four-seam too – that 4SFB is producing a swinging strike rate about 3.1% lower than last year. I’m pointing out his two-seam because it’s been awful.
I would say that Gallardo is a buy-low option right now. If the price is right – maybe someone else is willing to take a shot on the B.J. Upton you’ve had on your bench for a month or you have one closer too many- I’m buying on him where I can. I also would like to think professional baseball managers, professional pitching coaches and professional pitchers are aware of the same information that I came across after an hour of research, even if it doesn’t seem like it sometimes.
